000 AGXX40 KNHC 030614 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 215 AM EDT MON MAY 03 2010 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W GULF OF MEXICO... THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO CONTINUES WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS AND STRONG RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM SE LOUISIANA TO A 1005 MB LOW NEAR 21N94W THROUGH THE CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE AND ALONG THE E SLOPES OF THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS. THESE STRONG WINDS ARE THE RESULT OF A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN 1024 MB HIGH PRES OVER THE ATLC NEAR 30N65W AND THE TROUGHING ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. THE MODELS AGREE THAT THE PATTERN WILL BECOME LESS AMPLIFIED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AT THE SURFACE...THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE ATLC WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY STATIONARY BUT WEAKEN WHILE THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE COLD FRONT GRADUALLY MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE APPALACHIANS BY MON MORNING. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW 20 KT OVER THE ENTIRE GULF JUST AFTER LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT. THE WEAK COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY DRIFT E TO ALONG THE COAST OF GEORGIA WITH A STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL GULF THEN THE BOUNDARY WILL DISSIPATE OVER FORECAST WATERS ON WED. LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS OF 5 FT OR LESS ARE EXPECTED FOR WED AND DIMINISHING EVEN MORE ON THU WITH A TROUGH BUILDING OVER TEXAS AND EASTERN MEXICO ON THU THAT WILL BRING 20 KT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW TO THE NW GULF COAST THU NIGHT. SW N ATLANTIC S OF 31N W OF 55W... SOUTHEASTERLY RETURN FLOW TO 20 KT REMAINS W OF THE BAHAMAS DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE FRONT IN THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE 1024 MB HIGH IN E WATERS NEAR 30N65W. IN ADDITION...A FRESH BREEZE IS FOUND ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS HIGH...PARTICULARLY S OF 22N. THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE S OF 22N INTO TUE AS THE HIGH REMAINS NEAR STATIONARY. THE HIGH FINALLY SHIFTS E STARTING WED INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC ALLOWING THE FRESH WINDS IN S WATERS TO DIMINISH AND THE COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO NW WATERS. THE MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON THIS FRONT MOVING OFF THE NE FL COAST TUE AND WED CONTINUING E OF BERMUDA FRI BEFORE GRADUALLY DISSIPATING THE SYSTEM AS A NEW HIGH PRES CENTER ESTABLISHES ITSELF NEAR BERMUDA FRI. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRES OVER THE SW ATLC AND LOWER PRES OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO IS PRODUCING FRESH TO STRONG SE WINDS...IN THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE...ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN MAINLY W OF 83W INCLUDING THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO 15 TO 20 KT LATER TODAY WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO AROUND 6 FT ON TUE. THE STATIONARY SUBTROPICAL HIGH WILL CONTINUE FRESH TO MODERATE TRADES IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH TUE AND WEAKEN ON WED AND THU AS THE HIGH DRIFTS E. THE WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE N PORTION OF THE SW TROPICAL ATLC WILL BECOME STATIONARY AND DISSIPATING BY TUE AS A SECOND RE-ENFORCING FRONT ENTERS THE REGION BECOMING THE DOMINATE FRONT...EXITING THE REGION ON WED NIGHT. NE WINDS TO 20 KT CAN BE FOUND N OF THE BOUNDARY THROUGH MON NIGHT...BUT THE MAIN WEATHER CONCERN IS THE RAINFALL ON THE FAR EASTERN EDGE OF THE BOUNDARY STRETCHED FROM THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC INTO THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. THE LINGERING MOISTURE COULD STILL ALLOW FOR SOME LOW TOPPED SHOWERS TO CONTINUE OVER THIS AREA THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD EVEN AFTER THE SURFACE BOUNDARY DISSIPATES. WARNINGS... ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER PAW