000 AGXX40 KNHC 021823 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 225 PM EDT SUN MAY 02 2010 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W GULF OF MEXICO... THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO CONTINUES TO SEE SOUTHERLY WINDS TO JUST BELOW GALE FORCE WITHIN THE STRONG RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM TAMPICO MEXICO TO THE FAR NE TEXAS COAST AND INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THESE STRONG WINDS ARE THE RESULT OF A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN 1024 MB HIGH PRES OVER THE ATLC NEAR 29N65W AND THE 999-1003 MB TROUGHING ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. THE 06Z WAVEWATCH RUN USED FOR THE MANUAL PROGS WAS AS MUCH AS 6 FT HIGHER THAN THE OBSERVATIONS AT 1200 UTC IN THE ENVIRONMENTALLY SENSITIVE NORTH CENTRAL GULF. PERHAPS IT IS OVERDOING THE SE SWELL. THE ECMWF WAS IS BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE OBSERVATIONS...BUT WAS STILL ON THE HIGH SIDE. THE FORECAST CHARTS WERE ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY. THE ATMOSPHERIC MODELS AGREE THAT THE PATTERN WILL BECOME LESS AMPLIFIED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AT THE SURFACE...THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE ATLC WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY STATIONARY BUT WEAKEN WHILE THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE COLD FRONT GRADUALLY MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE APPALACHIANS BY MON MORNING. THE 06Z GFS ENSEMBLES SHOWED WINDS DIMINISHING BELOW 20 KT OVER THE ENTIRE GULF JUST AFTER SUNRISE MON. THE WEAK COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY DRIFT E ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...PUSHING INTO THE FLORIDA BIG BEND TUE NIGHT...BUT REMAINED ANCHORED OVER THE SW GULF. THE BOUNDARY WILL DISSIPATE OVER FORECAST WATERS ON WED. LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS OF 4 FT OR LESS ARE ON TAP FOR WED AND MUCH OF THU...BUT LOOK FOR TROUGHING TO BUILD OVER TEXAS AND EASTERN MEXICO ON THU THAT WILL BRING 20 KT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW TO THE NE GULF COAST THU NIGHT. SW N ATLANTIC S OF 31N W OF 55W... SLY RETURN FLOW TO 20 KT HAS ALREADY BEEN ESTABLISHED W OF THE BAHAMAS DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE FRONT IN THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE 1024 MB HIGH IN E WATERS NEAR 29N65W. IN ADDITION... A FRESH BREEZE IS FOUND ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS HIGH...PARTICULARLY S OF 22N. THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE S OF 22N INTO TUE AS THE HIGH REMAINS STATIONARY. THE HIGH FINALLY BECOMES DISLODGED WED AND MOVES E INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC ALLOWING THE FRESH WINDS IN S WATERS TO DIMINISH AND THE COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO NW WATERS. THE MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON STALLING THIS FRONT OFF THE NE FL COAST TUE AND WED BEFORE GRADUALLY DISSIPATING THE SYSTEM AS A NEW HIGH PRES CENTER ESTABLISHES ITSELF NEAR BERMUDA THU NIGHT. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRES OVER THE SW ATLC AND LOWER PRES OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO IS PRODUCING FRESH TO STRONG SE WINDS...IN THE 20 TO 30 KT RANGE...ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN MAINLY W OF 83W INCLUDING THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO 15 TO 20 KT ON MON WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO AROUND 5 FT ON TUE. THE STATIONARY SUBTROPICAL HIGH WILL ALL FRESH TO MODERATE TRADES TO CONTINUE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH TUE AND WEAKEN ON WED AND THU AS THE HIGH DRIFTS E. THE WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE N PORTION OF THE SW TROPICAL ATLC WILL BECOME STATIONARY BEFORE DISSIPATING MON. NE WINDS TO 20 KT CAN BE FOUND N OF THE BOUNDARY THROUGH MON NIGHT...BUT THE MAIN WEATHER CONCERN IS THE RAINFALL ON THE FAR EASTERN EDGE OF THE BOUNDARY STRETCHED FROM THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC INTO THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. THE LINGERING MOISTURE COULD STILL ALLOW FOR SOME LOW TOPPED SHOWERS TO CONTINUE OVER THIS AREA THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD EVEN AFTER THE SURFACE BOUNDARY DISSIPATES. WARNINGS... ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER SCHAUER