000 AGXX40 KNHC 181901 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 300 PM EDT SUN APR 18 2010 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W GULF OF MEXICO... SHARP MID/UPPER TROUGH MOVING E ACROSS THE GLFMEX WITH SFC LOW VERIFIED BY 1500 UTC ASCAT PASS NEAR 25N86W...WITH 20 KT WINDS ALL QUADS. ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW ACROSS SFC LOW ALLOWING FOR ISOLATED TO SCT DEEP CNVTN TO PERSIST INVOF CENTER. MODELS MOVE SFC LOW E-NE ACROSS S FL TONIGHT THROUGH MON MORNING WITH ECMWF FASTER THAN GFS. WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SINKING S TOWARDS THE GULF COASTS IS FORECAST TO MEANDER ACROSS THE FAR NE GULF THROUGH TUE AS THE DEEP LAYERED LOW SHIFTS E-NE INTO THE ATLC. EXCEPT FOR NEAR 20 KT WINDS INVOF THE SFC LOW AND SEAS AROUND 6 FT...WIND AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH TO 15 KT OR LESS AND SEAS 4 FT OR LESS THROUGH WED. SECOND FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY ALONG THE SE TEXAS COAST TO DRIFT OFFSHORE TONIGHT AND REMAIN ACTIVE WITH CNVTN BUT WILL BECOME STRETCHED AND DIFFUSE BY 48 HOURS. SW N ATLC AND TROPICAL ATLC... HIGH PRES RIDGE EXTENDING FROM 1021 MB HIGH NEAR 27N59W W-NW TOWARDS JAX WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE CONVERGING ACROSS E CUBA...HISPANIOLA AND THE SE BAHAMAS AHEAD OF APPROACHING MID/UPPER LOW. MODELS DEPICT A LLVL TROUGH IN THE FORM OF A WARM OR MOIST FRONT EXTENDING FROM LOW IN SE GULF THROUGH THE STRAITS AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. FRONT WILL LIFT N TO ALONG 25/26N NEXT 24 HOURS WHILE SFC LOW SHIFTS SLOWLY E-NE. I PREFER THE ECMWF SOLUTION WHICH IS A BIT FASTER THAN THE GFS...MOVING THE SFC TO JUST E OF THE NW BAHAMAS BY 00 UTC TUE. TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT TO THE N OF THIS LOW AIDED BY WEAK SINKING COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE A BROADER AREA OF 20-25 KT WINDS ACROSS MOST OF THE WATERS W OF 70W...THAN INDICATED BY GFS...AND LIKELY 20 KT SWLY FLOW ON S SIDE OF LOW. THIS LOW WILL THEN SLIDE E-NE AND OUT OF THE AREA AT AROUND 48 HOURS WITH NELY FLOW AROUND 25 KT FILLING IN ACROSS NW QUAD OF LOW....GENERATING SEAS 6-9 FT N OF THE TRAILING TROUGH INTO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. AGAIN ECMWF WINDS AND WAVES PREFERRED WITH THIS FORECAST. CARIBBEAN SEA... WEAK TROFFING EXTENDING S-SW FROM SFC LOW IN THE GULF EXTENDS INTO THE NW CARIB YIELDING WLY FLOW...WHILE SW TO S FLOW NEAR 15 KT IS AHEAD OF IT FLOWING ACROSS ERN CUBA. MODERATE E TO E-SE TRADES OTHERWISE PREVAIL ACROSS THE CARIB AND WILL BE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING DURING THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS AS THE ABOVE COMPLEX SYSTEM SCRAPES ACROSS N PORTIONS OF THE BASIN. N TO NELY SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE THROUGH THE ATLC PASSAGES OF THE E AND NE CARIB. WARNINGS... ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER STRIPLING