000 AGXX40 KNHC 100721 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 320 AM EDT SAT APR 10 2010 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W GULF OF MEXICO... THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF A COLD FRONT THAT MOVED INTO THE SE GULF LAST NIGHT HAS DISSIPATED AS HIGH PRES BUILDS DOWN FROM THE N. MEANWHILE A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRES HAS DEVELOPED IN THE SW GULF AND BAY OF CAMPECHE AS CAPTURED BY EARLIER WINDSAT AND ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASSES. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE IS MUCH LESS AGGRESSIVE WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS FEATURE (MODEL SOLUTIONS YESTERDAY WERE DEVELOPING AN AREA OF LOW PRES ALONG THE TROUGH). BOTH THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF NOW KEEP THE WEAK TROUGH IN THE SAME GENERAL VICINITY THROUGH AT LEAST WED. OTHERWISE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRES WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND WILL STRENGTHEN MON THROUGH WED WITH 1034 MB HIGH PRES CENTERED N OF THE AREA OVER THE CAROLINAS SINKING SOUTHWARD. THIS WILL RESULT IN A VERY TIGHT PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION WITH EASTERLY WINDS INCREASING TO 20-30 KT OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE GULF BY WED. LATEST WAVEWATCH MODEL GUIDANCE BUILDS SHORT PERIOD SEAS UP TO 14 FT OVER THE GULF WATERS AS A RESULT OF THE LONG AND PERSISTENT EASTERLY FETCH OVER THE AREA. SEAS MAY EVEN BE HIGHER IN THE GULF STREAM/STRAITS OF FLORIDA DUE TO THE COUNTER CURRENT AGAINST THE EASTERLY FETCH IF THIS SCENARIO PANS OUT. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... EARLIER WINDSAT AND ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASSES SHOWED NE-E TRADES OF 20-25 KT ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE CENTRAL AND E CARIBBEAN DUE TO A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRES NE OF THE AREA AND LOW PRES OVER COLOMBIA...WITH PRIMARILY E-SE 10-15 KT OVER THE W CARIBBEAN WHERE THE PRES GRADIENT REMAINS WEAKER. THIS PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY SUN THEN THE TRADES WILL WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY SUN NIGHT THROUGH WED. BY WED EXPECT NE-E WINDS OF 10-15 KT S OF 18N. N OF 18N THE PRES GRADIENT WILL STRENGTHEN WITH EASTERLY WINDS INCREASING TO 20-25 KT IN THE LEE OF CUBA. LATEST WAVEWATCH MODEL GUIDANCE EVEN BUILDS SEAS TO 8 FT SW-W OF CUBA DUE TO THE STRENGTHENING EASTERLY FETCH. MEANWHILE A REMNANT FRONTAL TROUGH IS IN PLACE IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC FROM NEAR 14N55W TO 12N61W WITH NUMEROUS BUOY AND SHIP OBSERVATIONS REPORTING NE-E WINDS AROUND 20 KT N OF THIS BOUNDARY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS CONCENTRATED N OF THE TROUGH AS WELL. THIS FEATURE WILL WEAKEN TODAY AND WILL EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE ON SUN WITH NE-E WINDS OF 15-20 KT EXPECTED SUN THROUGH MON THEN 10-15 KT TUE AND WED. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP DOWN FROM THE NW-N BY LATE WED N OF 20N. SW N ATLC W OF 55W... A WEAKENING COLD FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM NEAR 31N72W ACROSS THE NW BAHAMAS TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN TODAY AS IT ATTEMPTS TO PUSH TO THE E INTO A RIDGE OF HIGH PRES EVENTUALLY DISSIPATING ON SUN. HIGH PRES OVER THE U.S. MID-ATLANTIC STATES BUILDS DOWN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH EASTERLY FLOW SETTING UP TODAY THROUGH MON. HIGH PRES STRENGTHENS MON NIGHT AND AS A RESULT EASTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20-25 KT TUE THROUGH WED (POTENTIALLY EVEN STRONGER TO 25-30 KT BY WED AND WED NIGHT). THIS PERSISTENT NE-E FETCH WILL BUILD SHORT PERIOD SEAS TO 12 FT BY LATE WED WITH HIGH SEAS EVEN MANAGING TO SEEP THROUGH THE BAHAMAS TOWARD THE NE COAST OF CUBA AND SE FLORIDA. IN ADDITION LATEST WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE ALSO PROPAGATES A SET OF NW SWELL OF UP TO 14 FT INTO THE NE PORTION OF THE AREA BY LATE WED. WARNINGS... ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER LEWITSKY