000 AGXX40 KNHC 170731 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 330 AM EST TUE MAR 16 2010 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W GULF OF MEXICO... A BROAD RIDGE EXTENDING FROM TX TO SE WATERS WILL CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH THU. A WEAK HIGH CENTER WILL FORM ALONG THE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE NW GULF THU NIGHT AND SHIFT E ALONG 28-29N FRI AND ACROSS N FL FRI NIGHT. NLY WINDS WILL DOMINATE THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH THU WITH MAX WINDS OF 25 KT ONLY OVER THE E GULF DIMINISHING BELOW 20 KT LATE THU NIGHT. BY THEN SLY RETURN WILL SET HAVE UP OVER THE AREA W OF 94W...THEN SPREADING E AND COVERING ALL WATERS FRI NIGHT. NEXT COLD FRONT OFF THE TEXAS COAST AROUND SUNSET SAT RACING TO OVER THE EXTREME E WATERS LATE SUN NIGHT. GUIDANCE SUGGESTING MINIMAL GALE IN WAKE OF FRONT OVER THE WESTERN GULF ZONES SAT NIGHT INTO SUN WITH THE GFS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE AS USUAL...AND EVEN THE GFS HAS BACK OFF ON STRENGTH ON LATEST RUN. TROPICAL ATLC AND CARIBBEAN SEA... A BROAD FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 22N60W TO E HISPANIOLA AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER ATLC WATERS NE OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TONIGHT...AND THEN OVER WATERS E OF THE LEEWARDS THU BUT PROBABLY TRAIL REMNANTS W TO HISPANIOLA TILL FRI. A SECOND COLD FRONT IS ALREADY ALONG 24N E OF THE BAHAMAS...AND NOW LOOKS LIKE IT WILL CONTINUE SE INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC ZONE THU. A BROAD INVERTED TROUGH OVER THE E CARIBBEAN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THU NIGHT RESULTING IN A NE TO SE WIND SHIFT ALONG ROUGHLY 70W... WITH THE TROUGH WEAKENING SAT AND SUN ALLOWING EASTERLY TRADES TO BUILD W ACROSS THE AREA. NLY FLOW WILL DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN W OF 75W THROUGH FRI...THEN ELY TRADES RESUME TILL A COLD FRONT ARRIVES YUCATAN CHANNEL AROUND SUN NIGHT. SW N ATLC W OF 55W... THE INITIAL COLD FRONT IS OVER THE EXTREME SE WATERS AND THE SECONDARY SURGE IS NOW ANALYZED AS A COLD FRONT AS WELL AND EXTENDS FROM 29N55W TO 24N72W...AND SEEMS TO HAVE ENOUGH MOVEMENT THAT IT WILL CONTINUE SE OF THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. THE WLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AT 20 TO 30 KT CONTINUES N OF 27N E OF 68W AND EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BELOW 20 KT ALL WATERS W OF 65W BY THIS AFTERNOON...SPREADING E TO ALL WATERS W OF 55W TONIGHT. A NW TO SE RIDGE IS SETTING UP JUST E BUT PARALLEL TO THE BAHAMIAN CHAIN AND IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY SHIFT E BECOMING AN E TO W RIDGE ALONG 24-25N LATE TONIGHT. BROAD AND COMPLEX LOW PRES WILL MOVE OFF THE SE COAST CONUS WITH AT LEAST ONE LOW CENTER DEVELOPING S OF 31N BETWEEN 75W AND 80W TONIGHT INTO THU. AS THIS LOW AND AT LEAST ANOTHER N OF 31N ROTATE AROUND EACH OTHER THEY WILL DRAG A SERIES OF TROUGHS OR WEAK COLD FRONTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS. FOR SIMPLICITY WILL PROBABLY MENTION THE STRONGEST WIND SHIFT AS THE ONLY FRONT IN TEXT PRODUCTS WITH A SECOND FRONT OFF GA COAST LATE SUN NIGHT. WARNINGS... ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ080 AND GMZ082...GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED SAT NIGHT INTO SUN. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER NELSON