000 AGXX40 KNHC 280730 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 230 AM EST SUN FEB 28 2010 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W GULF OF MEXICO... A VERY PERSISTENT SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM ORIGINATING FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN AND STRETCHING NE ACROSS THE AREA WILL BE THE MAIN CULPRIT IN CONTINUING THE SERIES OF FAST MOVING COLD FRONTS WITH ATTENDANT LOWS THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE 0600 UTC PRELIMINARY SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE COLD FRONT NOW WELL TO THE E OF THE AREA WITH CONDITIONS NOW UNDER THE CONTROL OF A 1021 MB HIGH NEAR 28N95W. BUOY OBSERVATIONS ARE SHOWING NWLY FLOW ACROSS THE EASTERN AND MIDDLE ZONES IN THE FORM OF NW 20-25 KT WINDS S OF 26N...AND NW 15-20 KT WINDS N OF 26N. SEAS ARE STILL RATHER HIGH...IN THE 9-11 FT RANGE IN THE SE GULF...AND UP 8 FT IN THE MIDDLR GULF S OF 26N. WINDS OVER THE WESTERN HALF HAVE DIMINISHED CONSIDERABLY TO 10 KT AS WELL AS VEERED AROUND TO THE E-SE WHILE IN THE FAR NW PORTION THEY HAVE BECOME VARIABLE AT 5-10 KT. SEAS IN THESE WATERS ARE DOWN TO 2-4 FT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE SW GULF WHERE SEAS ARE MAXING OUT UP TO 9 FT IN A N SWELL PER BUOY 42055 AT 22N94W. WIND AND SEAS CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO SLACKEN THROUGH THIS MORNING...BUT BEGIN TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS STRONG SE FLOW OVER THE FAR WESTERN GULF BY THE AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO THE NEXT COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE NW GULF COAST BY EARLY MON MORNING. MODELS ARE PERSISTENT IN FORECASING ANOTHER LOW TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT ON MON AS IT QUICKLY SWEEPS E ACROSS THE GULF. MODELS SHOW A FURTHER N TRACK TO THE LOW WHICH LEADS TO HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN GALE FORCE WINDS UNDER STRONG CAA NW TO N FLOW WITH TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE MIDDLE AND EASTERN GULF MON AND TUE. SLY GALE FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT MON INTO TUE MORNING...BUT SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED DUE TO QUICK EXIT OF FRONT OUT OF THE GULF. STILL APPEARS THAT THERE WILL BE A LARGE AREA OF W-NW 20-30 KT WINDS FOLLOWING IN BEHIND THE FRONT SPREADING TO AS FAR S AS THE WATERS AROUND CUBA AND THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TUE INTO WED. THESE WINDS THEN WEAKEN WED AFTERNOON INTO THU AS HIGH PRES BUILDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WITH WINDS AND SEASTATE LOWERING THROUGHOUT. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS WHAT WAS RECENTLY THE GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT NOW EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL CUBA SW TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS. A VERY MINIMAL HIGH RESOLUTION ASCAT PASS FROM 0246 UTC THIS MORNING REVEALED NW WINDS OF 20-25 KT OVER THE FAR WESTERN PART OF THE SEA W OF ABOUT 83W. IN ADDITION NOAA BUOY 42056 NEAR 20N85W IS REPORTING NW WINDS OF 25 KT WITH A COMBINED SEASTATE OF 10 FT. THIS SAME ASCAT PASS SHOWED A SWATH OF NE 20 KT WINDS OVER THE FAR SRN WATERS IN THE VICINITY OF COLOMBIA BETWEEN 75W AND 77W. ELSEWHERE WINDS CONTINUE TO BE ON THE RELATIVELY LIGHT SIDE...WITH DIRECTIONS FROM THE NE-E IN THE 10-15 KT IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN SECTIONS...AND VARIABLE 5-10 KT W OF ABOUT 79W TO THE FRONT. BETWEEN THE FRONT AND 83W WINDS ARE N 10-15 KT. LATEST NWP GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE FRONT WILL REACH A PSN FROM NEAR EASTERN CUBA AND THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO NICARAGUA BY LATE THIS MORNING...THEN GRADUALLY DISSIPATE FROM NEAR THE MONA PASSAGE AND PUERTO RICO TO THE DEEP SW CARIBBEAN TONIGHT. TRADES OVER THE FAR SRN EASTERN SECTION REMAIN AT 15-20 KT THROUGH THU MORNING AS THE PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS. YET A THIRD COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN TUE MORNING ...AND REACH FROM EASTERN CUBA TO NE HONDURAS BY LATE TUE...FROM WINDWARD PASSAGE TO NEAR NRN COSTA RICA ON WED...THEN LIKE ITS PREDECESSOR WEAKEN FROM THE FAR NE CARIBBEAN SW TO NEAR 15N76W LATE WED INTO THU. IT APPEARS THAT NW TO N WINDS OF 20-25 KT WILL FOLLOW IN BEHIND THIS FRONT ALONG WITH BUILDING SEAS. SW N ATLC AND TROPICAL ATLC W OF 55W... THE 0250 UTC ASCAT PASS FROM THIS MORNING ALONG WITH BUOY OBSERVATIONS SHOWED NW WINDS OF 20-25 KT W OF THE COLD FRONT ANALYZED AT 0600 UTC FROM 31N72W TO CENTRAL CUBA. THE COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY MOVE TO THE FAR SE WATERS BY EALRY THIS EVENING WHILE WEAKENING. SLY GALE FORCE WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT N OF 27N ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT E OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THE WEAKENING FRONT WILL SKIRT ACROSS THE NRN WATERS OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC MON AND EXITS THE FAR NE PORTION TUE MORNING AS A DISSIPATING FRONTAL TROUGH. HIGH PRES RETURNS BEHIND THIS SYSTEM MON THROUGH EARLY TUE WITH YET ANOTHER LOW AND STRONG COLD FRONT ARRIVING FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO ON TUE WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF POSSIBLE GALE FORCE WINDS OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND ALSO BEHIND THE FRONT LATE TUE THROUGH LATE WED. THE FRONT SHOULD EXTEND FROM 26N65W TO HISPANIOLA BY LATE ON WED...AND FROM 22N61W TO U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS ON THU. W WEAKENING TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 18N55W TO 16N61W WINDS REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE ACROSS THE TROPICAL N ATLC...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR NRN WATERS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT MENTIONED ABOVE. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT ARE N 15-20 KT WITH SEAS UP 10 FT IN A N SWELL. THESE WINDS WILL VEER AROUND TO THE E AND WEAKEN TO 10-15 KT TODAY...BUT N SWELLS WITH 6-9 FT SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE NRN WATERS OF THIS ZONE THROUGH SUN NIGHT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT THEN BRUSHES THE NRN WATERS MON AND TUE BEFORE WEAKENING. S TO SW WINDS INCREASE TO 20 KT OVER THE NRN WATERS AHEAD OF THE ABOVE MENTIONED COLD FRONT ON WED WITH SEAS REMAINING IN THE 8-10 FT RANGE IN N SWELLS. WARNINGS... ATLC... .GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE N OF 26N...AMZ080 SAT THROUGH SUN AND TUE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ084...GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED N OF 26N LATE MON. .GMZ086...GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED N OF 27N MON NIGHT INTO TUE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER AGUIRRE