000 AGXX40 KNHC 181942 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 240 PM EST THU FEB 18 2010 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W GULF OF MEXICO... HIGH PRES OVER E LOUISIANA EXTENDS A RIDGE SE TO ACROSS FLORIDA. BUOY OBSERVATIONS FROM THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HAVE BEEN SHOWING N-NE WINDS OF 10-15 KT OVER THE AREA E OF 92W... WITH WINDS E-SE 10-15 KT W OF 92W. SEAS ARE SLOWLY SUBSIDING OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE GULF WITH MAXIMUM SEA HEIGHTS DOWN TO 6 FT IN THE FAR SE GULF...AND 2-4 FT ELSEWHERE...EXCEPT NEAR THE YUCATAN CHANNEL WHERE A N SWELL OF UP TO 7 FT LINGERS. MODELS AGREE THAT THE HIGH WILL SLIDE E TO THE FAR NE GULF BY SUN AND E OF NE FLORIDA BY LATE SUN AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES INTO EASTERN TEXAS BY SUN EVENING. A SWATH OF E-SE WINDS INCREASE TO 15-20 KT OVER THE FAR WESTERN GULF TONIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT ENHANCED BY THE PRES DIFFERENCE BETWEEN A DEVELOPING TEXAS COASTAL TROUGH AND HIGH PRES OVER THE SE UNITED STATES. THE GRADIENT THEN WEAKENS SAT AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL REACH A PSN FROM NEAR MOBILE ALABAMA TO WESTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE MON MORNING...AND FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE NE YUCATAN PENINSULA BY LATE MON...THEN E OF THE GULF LATE MON NIGHT. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE FRONT SHOULD NOT BE AS STRONG COMPARED TO RECENT ONES. GFS GUIDANCE INSISTS ON DEVELOPING A LOW ALONG THE FRONT IN THE SE GULF MON INTO TUE AND MOVING SE ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS BEFORE DISSIPATING IT. THE 1200 UTC ECMWFR DEVELOPS THE LOW A LITTLE FURTHER N...BUT ALSO TAKES IT SE ACROSS THE KEYS LATE MON INTO TUE WHEREAS THE UKNMET ALSO PICKS UP THE LOW...BUT TRACKS IT E ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE. THE NOGAPS AND CANADIAN DON'T PICK UP ON THIS FEATURE. FOR NOW WILL LEAVE OUT MENTION OF LOW ALONG THE FRONT SINCE IT APPEARS IT WILL HAVE LITTLE INFLUENCE ON WIND FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT AS IT QUICKLY MOVES ACROSS THE GULF. WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO SW 15-20 KT...AND LIGHTER WINDS OF 10-15 KT BEHIND IT FROM A NW TO N DIRECTION. LATEST NOAA WAVEWATCH III GUIDANCE SHOWS SEAS TO BE ON THE LOW SIDE...OUTSIDE THE FRONTAL ZONE...THROUGH MON. CARIBBEAN SEA... PRELIMINARY 1800 UTC ANALYSIS REVEALS A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT FROM HISPANIOLA TO 16N77W WHERE IT BECOMES A FRONTAL TROUGH TO NEAR 13N82W WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING SE IN ITS WAKE. BOTH BUOY AND SHIP REPORTS FROM THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HAVE NOTED N-NE WINDS OF 20-25 KT BEHIND THE FRONT S OF 20N W TO 84W WITH SEAS UP OF TO 9 FT. WINDS ELSEWHERE W OF THE FRONT ARE N-NE 15-20 KT WITH SEAS OF 4-7 FT WITH THE HIGHEST OF THESE SEAS S OF 19N. THE FRONT WILL BECOME DIFFUSE S OF 18N THROUGH FRI...WHILE THE PORTION N OF 18N APPROACHES THE VICINITY OF PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC FRI AFTERNOON INTO SAT MORNING BEFORE DISSIPATING. THE N-NE 20-25 KT WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT ARE FORECAST TO SPREAD E TO INCLUDE THE WINDWARD PASSAGE BY FRI...THEN DIMINISH TO NE-E 10-15 KT SAT AND SUN AND BECOME E-SE MON. NE-E WINDS OF 20-25 KT IN THE SOUTHERN WATERS TO NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA CONTINUE WITH LITTLE CHANGE THROUGH MON...THEN WEAKEN TUE. WINDS BECOME SE-S AND INCREASE TO 15-20 KT OVER THE FAR WESTERN WATERS MON...THEN DECREASE TO 10 TO 15 KT TUE IN RESPONSE TO THE ABOVE MENTIONED GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN LATE MON INTO TUE MORNING...THEN WEAKEN FROM E CUBA TO NE HONDURAS BY LATE TUE. LATEST MODEL INDICATIONS ARE THAT WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD BE N-NE ABOUT 10-15 KT. SW N ATLC AND TROPICAL ATLC W OF 55W... LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED COLD FRONT TRANSITIONING TO STATIONARY FROM 22N65W TO ACROSS HISPANIOLA. BOTH BUOY AND SHIP OBSERVATIONS HAVE BEEN REPORTING W TO NW WINDS OF 20-25 KT BEHIND THE FRONT N OF 26N WITH SEAS 10 TO 16 FT E OF 72W...AND 9 TO 14 FT IN NW SWELL BETWEEN 72W AND 79W W OF 72W. S OF 26N W OF FRONT WINDS ARE NW TO N 20 KT WITH SEAS 8 TO 11 FT FT IN NW NE OF BAHAMAS...AND 3 TO 5 FT SW OF BAHAMAS. SE OF THE FRONT ...BUOY 41043 NEAR 21N65W JUST REPORTED A WIND SHIFT FROM SW TO NW WITH INCREASED SPEED OF 15 KT AND COMBINED SEAS OF 5 FT IN A N SWELL. SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO REVEALED MOSTLY OVERCAST LOW AND MID CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG AND WITHIN 180 NW OF FRONT. MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE FRONT EXITS THE SW N ATLC AREA EARLY THIS EVENING...AND REACHES FROM 22N55W TO NEAR THE LEEWARDS ISLANDS AS A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT BY LATE FRI AFTERNOON...THEN BECOMES DIFFUSE SAT MORNING AS HIGH PRES RIDGING BUILDS ESE JUST NE OF THE BAHAMAS THROUGH SUN ALLOWING FOR SEASTATE CONDITIONS TO SETTLE DOWN TO ABOUT 4-6 FT E OF 74W...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE E PORTION WHERE RESIDUAL LONG-PERIOD NW SWELL SHOULD YIELD MAX SEA HEIGHTS OF 10 OR 11 FT BY EARLY SAT...DIMINISHING TO 8 FT SUN AFTERNOON AND MON...AND TO 6 FT LATE MON. SEAS SHOULD SUBSIDE TO 1-3 FT W OF 74W BY SUN UNDER LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...BUT WILL BE A SHORT RESPITE AS INCREASING SLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM BUMP THE SEAS UP TO 3 TO 5 FT N OF THE BAHAMAS BEFORE THE FRONT MAKES HEADWAY INTO THE SW N ATLC REACHING FROM NEAR 31N73W TO CENTRAL BAHAMAS BY TUE AFTERNOON AS THE HIGH RETREATS E OF THE AREA MON. THE SLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 20- 30 KT...AND W TO NW 20 TO 25 KT BEHIND IT ON TUE. LATEST WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE SHOWS SEAS BUILDING UP TO 8 FT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WARNINGS... ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER AGUIRRE