000 AGXX40 KNHC 031901 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 PM EST WED FEB 03 2010 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W GULF OF MEXICO... SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS BEGINNING TO FORM OVER NORTHERN MEXICO OR SOUTHERN TEXAS. THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE DEVELOPING LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES IS RESULTING IN 20-30 KT EASTERLY WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN GULF. THESE LOCAL WINDS COMBINED WITH ASSOCIATED EASTERLY SWELL ARE PRODUCING COMBINED SEAS UP TO 14 FT JUST OFFSHORE SOUTHERN TEXAS. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT IN DEEPENING THE LOW AND TAKING IT ON A NORTHEASTWARD COURSE ACROSS THE FAR NW GULF WATERS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. THE GFS SHOWS A BRIEF PERIOD OF GALE FORCE WINDS NEAR THE LOUISIANA COAST ON THURSDAY...BUT OUR FORECAST CONTINUES TO HOLD JUST BELOW GALE FORCE...30 KT...WITH HIGHER GUSTS DUE TO THE VERY LOW PROBABILITY OF GALE CONDITIONS IN THE GFS ENSEMBLE AND IN OTHER MODELS. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO SWEEP EASTWARD...CLEARING THE REGION BY EARLY SAT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL NORTH ATLANTIC... THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND TYPICAL LOWER PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA IS PRODUCING A SWATH OF 25-30 KT EASTERLY TRADES NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. A BROADER SWATH OF 20-25 KT EASTERLIES EXIST OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN E OF 81W AND THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC ZONE. THE HIGH IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EAST AS A SERIES OF LOWS RAPIDLY DEEPEN OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS WILL ALLOW THE TRADE WIND FLOW TO WEAKEN BY FRI WITH MAXIMUM WINDS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR 20 KT ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA THIS WEEKEND. ONE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LOWS WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE YUCATAN CHANNEL FRI NIGHT WITH 15-20 KT NLY FLOW FORECAST WEST OF THIS BOUNDARY. THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST AND WEAKEN OVER THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN THIS WEEKEND. MEANWHILE...LARGE NORTHERLY SWELL WILL ELEVATE SEAS TO NEAR 8 FT OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC BY THE WEEKEND. SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLANTIC... A RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE ZONE AND SHOULD BE EAST OF THE ZONE BY THURSDAY MORNING. ASCAT DATA AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS REVEAL SOUTHERLY 25-30 KT WINDS N OF 29N EAST OF THE FRONT AND SLIGHTLY WEAKER NORTHERLY FLOW WEST OF THE BOUNDARY. AS THIS FRONT EXITS...ATTENTION TURNS TO THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE ZONE AS SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE ATLANTIC FRI NIGHT WITH SOUTHWESTERLY GALE FORCE WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH PORTION OF THE ZONE EAST OF THE FRONT SAT. WHILE THERE IS SOME SPREAD ON THE TRACK OF THIS LOW...NEARLY ALL OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT IT WILL BE A STRONG SYSTEM...WHICH ADDS CONFIDENCE TO KEEPING THE GALE HEADLINE. LARGE NORTHERLY SWELLS WILL SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF THE ZONE IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. WARNINGS... ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI