000 AGXX40 KNHC 251942 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 240 PM EST MON JAN 25 2010 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W GULF OF MEXICO... LATEST SATELLITE VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWED A COLD FRONT REACHING FROM NAPLES FLORIDA SW INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA. BOTH SHIP AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS FORM DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HAVE REPORTED NW WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 15-20 KT WITHIN ABOUT 180 NM NW OF HE FRONT AND NW 10-15 KT ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE GULF E OF 90W...WHILE WINDS HAVE ALREADY GONE TO VARIABLE AT 5-10 KT W OF 90W. SEAS PEAKED UP TO 10 FT EARLY IN THE MORNING NEAR 26N89W...BUT HAVE DIMINISHED SLIGHTLY OVER MUCH OF THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WERE ALONG THE FRONT ACROSS THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY FROM THE GULF TONIGHT AS HIGH PRES SETTLES IN ACROSS THE GULF THROUGH TUE. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT E OF THE GULF THROUGH FRI AS SLY RETURN FLOW SETS UP AGAIN W GULF TUE NIGHT INTO WED...AND SPREADS E TO OVER THE EASTERN WATERS BY THU NIGHT. NEXT COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE STRONGER THAN THE CURRENT AS IT MOVES OFF THE TEXAS AND SW LOUISIANA COAST LATE THU NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING AS SUGGESTED BY LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE AS WELL AS WELL THE MEAN GFS AND GUN ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE. THE FRONT SHOULD REACH FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE LATE ON FRI...AND FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO NE YUCATAN PENINSULA BY LATE SAT. STRONG HIGH PRES IS FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS THE GULF BEHIND THIS FRONT ALLOWING FOR A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT TO PROMPT EXPECTED GALE CONDITIONS FOR THE SW GULF...AND NW GULF S OF 27N AS INDICATED IN MODEL WIND FIELD GUIDANCE. SW N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W... DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT WAS OBSERVED AS REMNANT PATCHES OF BROKEN LOW CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS EXTENDING FROM 17N55W WSW TO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. AT THE SAME TIME...THE ABOVE DESCRIBED COLD FRONT UNDER GULF OF MEXICO HAS PUSHED OFF THE SE U.S. COAST...AND EXTENDED FROM NEAR 31N77W TO S FLORIDA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. E TO SE FLOW HAS INCREASED ACROSS THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT AS NOTED IN SEVERAL SHIP OBSERVATIONS FROM THROUGHOUT THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. N TO NE SWELLS RESULTING IN SEAS UP TO 11 FT OVER THE FAR SE WATERS WERE OBSERVED E OF THE FRONT...AND E OF THE BAHAMAS. THE SLY FLOW HAS INCREASED TO MINIMAL GALE FORCE E OF THE FRONT N OF 29N TO ABOUT 72W. HOWEVER MEAN ENSEMBLE MODEL GUIDANCE AND GALE WIND PROBABILITY GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT THE GALE FORCE WINDS WILL SUBSIDE TO 25-30 KT OVERNIGHT TONIGHT PERHAPS TOWARDS MORNING. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO REACH FROM NEAR 31N67W TO EASTERN CUBA BY LATE TUE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING...THEN WEAKEN OVER THE FAR E WATERS WED AND DISSIPATE THU JUST SE OF THE AREA. HIGH PRES WILL SHIFT E ACROSS ATLC JUST N OF FORECAST AREA MAINTAINING A FAIRLY TIGHT GRADIENTS S OF 24N THROUGH END OF PERIOD. MODELS HINT THAT SLY FLOW THEN INCREASES TO 20 KT OVER THE FAR NW WATERS FRI INTO SAT AS GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT THEN MOVES OFF THE GEORGIA AND NE FLORIDA COASTS. EARLY MODEL INDICATIONS ARE THAT WINDS AHEAD OF THIS FRONT MAY POSSIBLE REACH GALE FORCE N OF 29N OR 30N. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W... DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN WAS DEPICTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AS SCATTERED PATCHES OF BROKEN LOW CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS EXTENDING FROM THE LEEWARD ISLANDS WNW TO ALONG THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF PUERTO AND NW TO THE COAST OF HAITI. POST FRONTAL NLY SWELLS HAVE BOOSTED SEAS UP TO 11 FT INTO IN THE NE CARIBBEAN SEA...BUT WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. GRADIENT WILL REMAIN TIGHT OVER MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN INTO AT LEAST SAT MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING. A COLD FRONT PUSHED INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA OVERNIGHT...AND EXTENDED FROM WESTERN CUBA S TO THE COAST OF HONDURAS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT HAVE SHIFTED TO N 20 TO 25 KT WITH SEAS UP TO 8 FT. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN FROM NEAR THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO 15N78W TUE NIGHT INTO WED AS STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDS S INTO THE NW AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A FAIRLY TIGHT GRADIENT OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE SEA WITH NE TO E 20 KT WINDS OVER THOSE SECTIONS WITH 25 TO 30 KT WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. THESE WINDS THEN EXPAND EASTWARD THROUGH FRI AS THE ATLC HIGH SHIFTS... AND DIMINISH MOST ZONES SAT AS THE HIGH SLIDES EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT MENTIONED ABOVE WHICH MAY APPROACH THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN LATE SAT. WARNINGS... ATLC... .AMZ080...GALE WARNING N OF 29N E OF FRONT TO 72W TONIGHT. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ080...GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED S OF 27N LATE THU INTO FRI. .GMZ082...GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED W OF FRONT FRI. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER AGUIRRE