000 AGXX40 KNHC 171857 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 PM EST SUN JAN 17 2010 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W GULF OF MEXICO... THE FIRST COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED SE OF THE AREA...WITH A REINFORCING COLD FRONT BACK TO THE W EXTENDING FROM NEAR CEDAR KEY FLORIDA TO 25N86W. W-NW WINDS OF 20-25 KT ARE BEHIND THE REINFORCING FRONT...BUT THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH AS HIGH PRES BUILDS E ACROSS THE GULF TONIGHT. HIGH PRES WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL MON THROUGH TUE...AND BY WED WILL SHIFT E INTO THE ATLC WITH RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASING OVER THE CENTRAL AND W GULF AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. THE NEXT FRONT MOVES OFF THE TEXAS COAST LATE WED NIGHT/EARLY THU. THE LATEST RUN OF THE GFS NOW DEVELOPS A WEAKER LOW ALONG THE FRONT OVER THE INTERIOR GULF COAST STATES N OF 30N WHICH IS MORE IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF SOLUTION...WITH WINDS FCST TO REMAIN JUST BELOW GALE FORCE OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS. THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM NEAR SE LOUISIANA TO THE TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER BY EARLY THU...THEN FROM THE BIG BEND OF FLORIDA TO 25N88W BY EARLY FRI...AND E OF THE AREA BY LATE FRI NIGHT. ONLY MINIMAL COLD AIR ADVECTION IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT...THUS DO NOT ANTICIPATE A NORTHERLY WIND SURGE FOLLOWING FROPA. STRONGEST WINDS ARE FCST TO BE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...MAINLY N OF 25N. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W... A VERY SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT REMAINS IN THE NW CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM SE FLORIDA ACROSS WESTERN CUBA TO NEAR 16N87W. NORTHERLY WINDS TO 20 KT ARE STILL POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT AS THE WINDS GET FUNNELED UP ALONG THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT EDGES EASTWARD AND WILL EXTEND FROM NEAR CENTRAL CUBA TO 17N84W BY EARLY MON...THEN WILL DISSIPATE BY EARLY TUE. OTHERWISE...THE PRES GRADIENT HAS WEAKENED OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE TRADES CONFINED TO THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE BASIN. THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUE. TRADES WILL THEN STRENGTHEN AND EXPAND IN COVERAGE WED NIGHT THROUGH THU AS THE PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS...THEN WILL DIMINISH AGAIN ON FRI AS THE GRADIENT RELAXES. IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC...A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM NEAR 22N35W TO 17N50W WITH A FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THERE TO ALONG THE NORTH COAST OF PUERTO RICO AND EASTERN HISPANIOLA. AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS CONTINUED TO INDICATE NE TO E WINDS OF 20-25 KT N OF THE BOUNDARY. THE FRONT/TROUGH WILL DISSIPATE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MON WITH WINDS DIMINISHING TO 10-15 KT BY LATE MON. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES WILL PERSIST S OF 18N THROUGH THE WEEK WITH SEAS OF 5 TO 8 FT IN MIXED N AND E SWELL...AND MAINLY LIGHT/GENTLE VARIABLE WINDS N OF 18N TUE THROUGH FRI. SW N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W... A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM NEAR 31N77W TO NEAR WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA. THE GALE WARNING FOR THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA S OF 25N W OF 80W HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE WITH AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS AND LATEST SURFACE OBS IN THE AREA NOW 20-30 KT. A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT AHEAD OF THE FRONT N OF 29N W OF 74W WITH A COUPLE OF 35-40 KT WIND BARBS CAPTURED BY SCATTEROMETER PASSES NEAR 31N (ALTHOUGH MAY BE RAIN CONTAMINATED). THE GALE WARNING WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY EVENING WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO 25-30 KT THEREAFTER. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT IS LOCATED TO THE W OVER THE FAR E GULF OF MEXICO. THIS FRONT WILL MERGE WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT BY LATE TONIGHT/EARLY MON. THE NEWLY MERGED FRONT WILL REACH FROM NEAR 31N71W TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO NEAR 22N77W BY EARLY MON...THEN FROM NEAR 26N65W TO BETWEEN THE TURKS AND CAICOS AND THE NORTH COAST OF HISPANIOLA BY EARLY TUE WHERE IT WILL STALL OUT AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE BY EARLY WED. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD IN FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO EARLY TUE AND WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH WED NIGHT. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL INCREASE OVER THE W PORTION OF THE AREA ON THU AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. THE GFS CONTINUES TO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR GALES AHEAD OF THE FRONT THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI...ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF KEEPS GALE CONDITIONS N OF 31N AND THUS WILL KEEP WINDS CAPPED AT 30 KT FOR NOW. WARNINGS... ATLC... .GALE WARNING N OF 29N W OF 74W THROUGH EARLY EVENING...AMZ080. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER LEWITSKY