000 AGXX40 KNHC 150706 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 210 AM EST FRI JAN 15 2010 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W GULF OF MEXICO... THE PROBLEM OF THE DAY LIES WITH THE STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING IN THE GULF OF MEXICO TODAY AND MOVING NE INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. OVER THE WEEKEND. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE A FAST/EASTERLY OUTLIER. THERE APPEARS TO BE CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK WITH THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTED FROM THE DEEP LAYER LOW INTO THE RIDGE TO ITS E. THIS CAUSES THE GFS TO SHIFT THE DEEP LAYER LOW EASTWARD MORE RAPIDLY THAN THE OTHER MODELS BY SAT. WHILE THE GFS CARRIES THE MAIN SURFACE LOW TRACK INLAND NEAR PANAMA CITY FL SAT AFTERNOON AND INTO CHARLOTTE NC BY SUN MORNING...THE OTHER MODELS ARE CARRYING THE LOW ONSHORE INTO SE LOUISIANA SAT AFTERNOON AND ARE SIGNIFICANTLY W OF THE GFS BY SUN MORNING...ANYWHERE FROM MONTGOMERY AL TO NASHVILLE TN. PMDHMD PREFERS THE CONSISTENT ECMWF SOLUTION HERE. PAST PERFORMANCE WITH SOUTHERN STREAM CUT OFF LOWS MOVING THROUGH MEXICO AND THE SW U.S. INTO THE GULF FAVORS A SLOW SOLUTION AND THE ECMWF FITS THE BILL. BELIEVE THE GFS WIND FIELD IS TOO STRONG DUE TO THE FEEDBACK WHICH HAS ALSO CAUSED THE WW3 TO BE OVERDONE WITH WAVE HEIGHTS. THE ECMWF SHOWS GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE NW GULF AND NORTHERN HALF OF THE MIDDLE GULF OFFSHORE ZONES ON SAT. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE CURRENT WARNING. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W... A SOLID AREA OF 25 TO 30 KT WINDS CURRENTLY LIES OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA TO 15N ACCORDING TO THE 0256 ASCAT PASS. HIGH PRES BUILDING IN OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC BEHIND THE STATIONARY FRONT WEAKENING OVER PUERTO RICO WILL KEEP STRONG TRADE WINDS ACROSS CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WATERS TODAY. THIS STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES TO BRING WARM CLOUD TOP SHOWERS TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...PUERTO RICO...AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS WHICH MAY PERSIST FOR SEVERAL DAYS. OVER THE WEEKEND...EXPECT THE HIGH PRES TO BE FORCED SOUTHWARD BY A COLD FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC N OF THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST AREA. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS HIGH AND THE LOW PRES SYSTEM OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL CAUSE WINDS TO TURN MORE SOUTHEASTERLY AND STRENGTHEN SAT IN THE NW CARIBBEAN. THE PREFERRED TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT...SLOWER LIKE THE ECMWF...TAKES THE WEAKENED FRONT THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL BY SUN AS THE MAIN SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM RACES NORTHEASTWARD. SEE THE SECTION ABOVE FOR FORECAST REASONING ON THE GULF OF MEXICO LOW. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL WEAKEN OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN MON AND THE DECREASED N TO S PRES GRAD WILL TAKE THE TRADE WINDS DOWN A NOTCH EARLY NEXT WEEK. SW N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W... 1027 MB HIGH PRES NEAR 31N72W DOMINATES THIS FORECAST AREA...WITH LIGHT WINDS N OF 27N AND INCREASING AS YOU MOVE SOUTH AWAY FROM THE FRONT TOWARD THE DISSIPATING STATIONARY FROM OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN. LARGE DIFFERENCES IN THE FORECAST MODELS ARISE BY THE WEEKEND WITH THE TIMING OF THE INCREASE IN SE FLOW AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM DEEPENING OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. AS MENTIONED IN THE GULF OF MEXICO SECTION...THE GFS APPEARS TOO STRONG WITH ITS WIND FIELD DUE TO CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK E OF THE MAIN LOW PRES SYSTEM. A SLOWER SOLUTION LIKE THE ECMWF IS PREFERRED. THE ECMWF COMES CLOSE TO THE GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE SW N ATLC AS SUGGESTED BY THE GFS. THE UKMET SOLUTION...WHICH HAS ALSO BEEN REASONABLY CONSISTENT HERE...ALSO SHOWS A SOLID AREA OF 30 KT WINDS OFF THE N FL COAST. HAVING INHERITED A GALE WARNING FOR THE REGION...WILL NOT PULL DOWN THE GALE FLAG JUST YET. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THOUGH THAT THE MODELS HAVE GENERALLY BEEN OVERDONE WITH THE WINDS STRENGTH IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF FRONTS THIS COOL SEASON. WARNINGS... ATLC... .GALE WARNING N OF 28N W OF 77W...GMZ084 CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .GALE WARNING N OF 23N BETWEEN 85W AND 90W...AMZ080 FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER SCHAUER