000 AGXX40 KNHC 270636 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 AM EST SUN DEC 27 2009 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W GULF OF MEXICO... A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRES NEAR 25.5N94W HAS DEVELOPED ALONG A TROUGH AXIS WHICH EXTENDS FROM THE LOW TO NEAR 21N97W AS INDICATED BY A 0252 UTC ASCAT PASS. WINDS OF 20-25 KT ARE ALREADY OCCURRING ON BOTH SIDES OF THE TROUGH. MEANWHILE 1021 MB HIGH PRES IS CENTERED NEAR THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE WITH A WEAK RIDGE IN PLACE OVER THE E GULF. THE TROUGH WILL DRIFT TO THE NE-E TODAY THROUGH SUN...REACHING NEAR 26N86W TO 21.5N88W BY 00 UTC MON...THEN WILL DISSIPATE BY 00 UTC TUE. STRONG HIGH PRES CENTERED OVER CENTRAL TEXAS BUILDS DOWN OVER THE GULF BEHIND THE TROUGH WITH N-NE WINDS IN THE 20-25 KT ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF BY MON AFTERNOON DUE TO A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT. HIGH PRES HOLDS IN PLACE OVER THE GULF INTO TUE...WEAKENING SLIGHTLY AS ANOTHER TROUGH DEVELOPS JUST OFF THE COAST OF NE MEXICO. THIS NEXT TROUGH SHIFTS SLIGHTLY TO THE N-NE TO JUST OFF THE TEXAS COAST BY 00 UTC WED. THE GFS DEVELOPS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRES ALONG THE TROUGH...REACHING NEAR 28N89W BY 00 UTC THU...WITH THE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THERE TO 22N92W. THESE FEATURES MOVE OUT OF THE E GULF WATERS AND INTO FLORIDA BY THU AFTERNOON. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W... A WEAK COLD FRONT IS DISSIPATING OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM NEAR 21N81W TO 17N87W. A WEAK PRES GRADIENT REMAINS OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE CARIBBEAN BASIN WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADES...EXCEPT FOR NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WHERE 20-25 KT NE-E WINDS CONTINUE TO BLOW...AS CAPTURED BY A 0250 UTC ASCAT PASS AND AN EARLIER 2244 UTC WINDSAT PASS. THIS PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH MON. THE PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS BY MON NIGHT AS HIGH PRES BUILDS DOWN FROM THE NW...WITH TRADES INCREASING TO 15-20 KT WITH 20-25 KT NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. THESE WINDS PERSIST THROUGH THU. IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC...A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM NEAR 19N55W TO 20N65W WITH NE TO E WINDS IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE CONTINUING ALONG AND N OF 20N. THESE WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MON...WITH THE FRONT FINALLY DISSIPATING BY MON EVENING. TRADES S OF 13N WILL INCREASE TO 20-25 KT MON NIGHT THROUGH THU. LARGE LONG PERIOD NORTHERLY SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE THROUGH THE TROPICAL N ATLC THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD. THIS SWELL IS ALSO SEEPING THROUGH THE ATLC PASSAGES INTO THE E CARIBBEAN...WHICH WILL PERSIST THROUGH WED...EVENTUALLY DECAYING TO LESS THAN 8 FT BY THU. SW N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W... A COLD FRONT IS LOCATED OFF THE FLORIDA COAST EXTENDING FROM NEAR 31N74W TO 26N76W. MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHERLY BREEZE IS OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT WILL MOVE TO THE E REACHING FROM NEAR 31N71W TO 25N75W BY 00 UTC MON...AND TO NEAR 31N66W TO 23N73W BY 00 UTC TUE. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT INTO THE NW CORNER OF THE AREA BY MON AFTERNOON WITH W-NW WINDS INCREASING TO THE 20-25 KT RANGE BEHIND THIS SECOND FRONT AS COLDER AIR ALOFT MOVES OVER THE WARMER ATLC WATERS. THESE FRONTS WILL MERGE ON TUE...PUSHING E OF THE AREA BY 00 UTC WED AS HIGH PRES BUILDS DOWN FROM OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. THE GFS THEN DEVELOPS A TROUGH JUST OFF THE GEORGIA/FLORIDA COAST ON WED...WITH LOW PRES DEVELOPING ALONG THIS FEATURE ON THU AS IT MOVES OVER THE GULF STREAM. SW WINDS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH INCREASE TO 20-25 KT...WITH NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND IT ALSO IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE. MEANWHILE NORTHERLY SWELL OF UP TO 13 FT WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE THROUGH THE WATERS ALONG AND E OF 65W THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD. WARNINGS... ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER LEWITSKY