000 AGXX40 KNHC 180721 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 230 AM EST FRI DEC 18 2009 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W GULF OF MEXICO... THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS THE GULF REGION IS A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW PRES SYSTEM CURRENTLY IN THE NW GULF NEAR 27N92W WITH A CENTRAL PRES AROUND 1006 MB. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS AREA NOTED ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE LOW PER A RECENT ASCAT PAST AND SHIP OBSERVATIONS. THE LOW WILL DEEPEN AS IT SHIFT INTO THE NE GULF. WINDS WILL REACH NEAR GALE FORCE IN ADVANCE OF THE LOW OVER THE N CENTRAL AND NE GULF. THE LOW PRES WILL SHIFT THROUGH GEORGIA TOWARD THE CARLINA COAST THROUGH SAT. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM THE LOW CENTER TO THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...AND WILL SWEEP SE OF THE GULF THROUGH FRI NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY FRESH TO STRONG NE FLOW. A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT SAT WILL MAINTAIN FRESH NORTHERLY FLOW SAT INTO SUN. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH SUN AND MON AS HIGH PRES WILL BUILD ACROSS THE NW AND N CENTRAL GULF THROUGH MON. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW INCREASES OVER THE FAR WESTERN GULF TUE AS LOW PRES DEEPENS OVER TEXAS. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W... SURFACE HIGH PRES NE OF THE BAHAMAS IS KEEPING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHT ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN 20 TO 25 KT WINDS OVER MAINLY THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...AND 30 KT S OF 14N OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA...WITH 15 TO 20 KT ELSEWHERE S OF 18N. WINDS ARE NOT AS STRONG IN THE ATLC EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES...ALTHOUGH BUOYS INDICATE NORTHERLY SWELL 5 TO 7 FT IN THE AREA. THE FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TODAY AS THE HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA YIELDS TO DEEP LOW PRES AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE FRONT WILL ENTER THE NW CARIBBEAN LATE TODAY... ACCOMPANIED BY FRESH NW WINDS...THEN WILL EXTEND FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS SAT MORNING...AND FROM EASTERN CUBA TO NEAR CABO GRACIAS A DIOS NICARAGUA SAT EVENING. THE PRESENCE OF THE FRONT WILL ALSO ALLOW THE WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN TO VEER ESE AND DIMINISH FURTHER TO LIGHT TO MODERATE FORCE. MEANWHILE THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE ATLC WILL SHIFT SE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND EXTEND ALONG ROUGHLY 19N NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS FROM LATE SAT THROUGH MON. SEAS TO 9 FT IN E SWELL OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL DECAY TODAY AS WINDS ABATE. SEAS UP TO 7 FT ARE LIKELY BEHIND THE FRONT OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NORTHERLY SWELL UP TO 7 FT WITH PERIODS TO 15 SECONDS WILL SLIP THROUGH THE ANEGADA PASSAGE INTO THE NE CARIBBEAN BY LATE SAT. SW N ATLC W OF 55W... A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 26N65W THEN CONTINUES W-NW TO CENTRAL FLORIDA WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY. AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS SHOWED NE WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT OVER MUCH OF THE AREA N OF THE FRONT AND E OF THE BAHAMAS...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 8 TO 12 FT IN N SWELL. DEEPENING LOW PRES OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE TOWARD THE CAROLINA COAST THROUGH LATE FRI. WINDS N OF THE BAHAMAS WILL INCREASE ACCORDINGLY...REACHING GALE FORCE THIS AFTERNOON. TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SE FRI NIGHT AND SAT...REACHING A POSITION FROM BERMUDA TO EASTERN CUBA SAT EVENING. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KT WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT OVER THE WATERS N OF 25N THROUGH SUN. WINDS WILL START TO DIMINISH BY MON AS THE FRONT REACHES FROM 22N55W TO THE MONA PASSAGE. LONG PERIOD NW SWELL WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA REACHING THE ATLANTIC PASSAGE FRI AFTERNOON...WITH N SWELL UP TO 8 FT REACHING THE N COAST OF PUERTO RICO BY SAT. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD ALONG 25N MON INTO TUE. A SECOND FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST AND INTO THE WATERS BETWEEN N FLORIDA AND BERMUDA BY LATE TUE. WARNINGS... ATLC... .AMZ080...GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED N OF 26N FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT NIGHT. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER GR/EC