000 AGXX40 KNHC 170834 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 315 AM EST THU DEC 17 2009 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W GULF OF MEXICO... SURFACE LOW PRES PERSISTS OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 25N95W THIS MORNING...HAVING DEVELOPED PAST 36 HOURS OUT OF A WAVE AND DOUBLE POINT ALONG A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT SHIFTED SE INTO THE GULF. THE WRN PORTION OF THE FRONT HAS PUSHED S AND INTO THE WRN BAY OF CAMPECHE. DEEP LAYERED E-SE FLOW ACROSS THE WRN CARIB AND INTO THE SE TWO-THIRDS OF THE GULF HAS HELD THIS WRN PORTION OF THE FRONT NEARLY STATIONARY...AND MAY IN FACT BE DRIFTING W ATTM. MEANWHILE...THE NRN PORTION OF THE FRONT HAS BECOME STATIONARY DRAPED ACROSS THE NRN GULF...WITH A LLVL PERTURBATION MOVING WNW ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF HAVING INDUCED A WAVE ALONG THIS STATIONARY BOUNDARY. RECENT ASCAT PASSES INDICATED A VERY BROAD ZONE OF 25 KT WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE NW GULF W OF 88-90W...BRIDGING ACROSS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO 24.5N...WITH SMALL AREAS OF 25-30 KT...WHILE NLY FLOW OF 25-30 KT WAS INDICATED DIVING S BEHIND THE FRONT ALONG THE MEXICAN COASTAL WATERS. A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THESE WATERS S OF 26N W OF THE COLD FRONT...AND A MEXICAN BUOY IN WHAT WE AMERICANS CALL THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...BUOY "BMO" HAS BEEN REPORTING NNW WINDS JUST UNDER GALE FORCE FOR A FEW HOURS NOW...WITH SWH 4.8 METERS. THIS WAVE HEIGHT MEASUREMENT SUGGESTS GALES ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE WRN GULF. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE NW GULF...SEAS ARE LIKELY RUNNING 9-11 FT...WITH A SECONDARY MAX OF 12-13 FT LIKELY OCCURRING ACROSS THE ERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE SURFACE LOW. THE LOW WILL BEGIN TO TRACK NE TODAY IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER TROUGH DIGGING EASTWARD THROUGH WRN TEXAS AND N CENTRAL MEXICO...AND WILL BEGIN TO DEEPEN AND SHIFT NE AND ACCELERATE TOWARD THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AREA THROUGH LATE FRI UNDERNEATH THE LEFT FRONT REGION OF THE SUBTROPICAL JET PUSHING ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GULF...AS THE UPPER TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF TOWARDS THE CAROLINAS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR GALE FORCE ACROSS THE NW SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW...AND ACROSS THE SW GULF W OF THE FRONT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...WITH SEAS TO 15 FT....WHILE A BROADER SCALE 25 KT FLOW PREVAILS ELSEWHERE N AND W OF THE LOW AND FRONT. WINDS THEN WILL DECREASE ACROSS W PORTIONS OF THE GULF FRI MORNING AS A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR MOVES OFF TEXAS FRI...MAINTAINING THE FRESH TO STRONG NWLY FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT INTO SAT...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 10 FT OVER THE EAST GULF BY SAT AFTERNOON. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A BRIEF PERIOD OF 30 KT WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRI AFTERNOON-EVENING ACROSS THE SE WATERS E OF 85W AS A STRONG LLVL SW JET MOVES ASHORE S OF TAMPA. THIS WILL PUMP UP SEAS AND PRODUCE HIGH AND ROUGH SURF AND BEACH EROSION ALONG LARGE PORTIONS OF THE SE AND CENTRAL W COAST OF FLORIDA. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST SAT INTO SUN AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN GULF. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W... SURFACE HIGH PRES NE OF THE BAHAMAS IS KEEPING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHT ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN 20 TO 25 KT WINDS OVER MAINLY THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...AND 30 KT S OF 14N OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA...WITH 15 TO 20 KT ELSEWHERE S OF 18N. WINDS ARE NOT AS STRONG IN THE ATLC EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES...ALTHOUGH BUOYS INDICATE NORTHERLY SWELL 5 TO 7 FT IN THE AREA AND WILL CONTINUE TO DECAY TODAY. THE STRONG TRADES OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL DIMINISH THROUGH FRI AS THE HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA YIELDS TO THE LOW AND COLD FRONT BARRELING THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO...ENTERING THE NW CARIBBEAN LATE FRI AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING...ACCOMPANIED BY FRESH NW WINDS. THE WEAKENING FRONT WILL PUSH DOWN THE COAST OF NICARAGUA ON SAT...FOLLOWED BY FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW THAT WILL PERSIST INTO MON. THE PRESENCE OF THE FRONT WILL ALSO ALLOW THE WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN TO VEER ESE TO SE AND DIMINISH FURTHER TO LIGHT TO MODERATE. MEANWHILE THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE ATLC WILL SHIFT SE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND EXTEND ALONG ROUGHLY 19N NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS FROM LATE SAT THROUGH MON. SW N ATLC W OF 55W... RECENT ASCAT AND WINDSAT PASSES CONTINUE TO SHOW A LARGE AREA OF N TO NE WINDS AT 20-25 KT WITH AREAS TO 30 KT N OF AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING NEARLY W TO E ALONG 27N...WITH THIS WIND FIELD REACHING ALL THE WAY TO THE OUTER BANKS AND SOUTHEASTWARD...ASSOCIATED WITH A SHIFTING 1032 MB HIGH MOVING ACROSS W VIRGINIA. THE THE SE OF THIS OLD FRONT WAS A 1020 MB SURFACE HIGH THAT WILL BEGUN TO ERODE AS THE FRONT SHIFTS/SAGS SOUTHWARD...REACHING A POSITION FROM ALONG ROUGHLY 25N THIS MORNING BEFORE STALLING. THE FAR WESTERN EXTENT OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL MEANDER N OF THE BAHAMAS TODAY...AHEAD OF LOW PRES ADVANCING EASTWARD THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS DEEPENING LOW PRES SYSTEM WILL MOVE FROM THE NE GULF OF MEXICO TOWARD THE CAROLINA COAST FROM LATE THU THROUGH FRI NIGHT...BRINGING FRESH TO STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS FROM THE BAHAMAS TO OFF THE COAST OF N FLORIDA IN THE PROCESS. THESE WINDS WILL VEER SW AND INCREASE TO GALE FORCE IN THE WATERS BETWEEN CENTRAL FLORIDA AND BERMUDA EARLY SAT THROUGH SUN...AND COULD DEVELOP AS FAR S AS THE NW BAHAMAS. THE FRONT WILL REACH A POSITION FROM ROUGHLY BERMUDA TO EASTERN CUBA BY EARLY SUN. FRESH TO STRONG NW WINDS FOLLOW THE FRONT...MOSTLY N OF 27N...ACCOMPANIED BY N SWELL UP TO 15 FT. A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR WILL PUSH OFF THE N FLORIDA COAST SUN NIGHT...INCREASING THE NW WINDS TO NEAR GALE CONDITIONS OVER THE WATERS BETWEEN N FLORIDA AND BERMUDA. MEANWHILE...MODERATE LONG PERIOD NLY SWELL AT 12-13 SEC WILL AFFECT THE GREATER ANTILLES AND MOVE THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN PASSAGES SAT BEFORE FADING TO LESS THAN 4 FT SUN. WARNINGS... ATLC... .AMZ080...GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED N OF 26N EARLY SAT THROUGH SUN. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ080-082...GALE WARNING W AND NW OF COLD FRONT S OF 28N W OF 95W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER STRIPLING