000 AGXX40 KNHC 160814 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 315 AM EST WED DEC 16 2009 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W UPPER LEVELS... UPPER LEVEL RIDGING EXTENDS FROM THE NW CARIBBEAN N TO ABOUT 30N AND NE TO BEYOND BERMUDA. UPSTREAM...A STRONG SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE IS BECOMING DETACHED FROM A BRAOD MID LAT TROUGH MOVING INTO THE NE U.S. THIS S/W EXTENDS FROM FAR W TEXAS SW TO THE SRN GULF OF CALIFORNIA THEN CONTINUES SW TO THE EPAC ITCZ NEAR 120W. STRONG SWLY FLOW ALOFT OF 60-80 KT AT BASE OF TROUGH ACCELERATES IN EXCESS OF 100 KT ACROSS NE MEXICO...THEN TURNS ANTICYCLONIC ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES. THIS S/W WILL BECOME THE MAIN FOCUS OF FORECAST NEXT 72 HOURS AND BEYOND AS ASSOCIATED DYNAMICS QUICKLY DEEPEN A SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE NRN GULF FRI MORNING AND PUSH IT ENE ACROSS FLORIDA AND INTO THE WRN ATLC. SURFACE... WEAKENING ATLC RIDGE CENTERED ON 1020 MB HIGH NEAR 25N67W. MODERATE TO FRESH NELY FLOW ACROSS THE ATLC S OF 22N CONTINUES TO NUDGE A SHEAR LINE STRETCHING FROM CENTRAL ATLC WSW INTO THE ERN CARIB ALONG 15N...TOWARDS TO SW. FRESH 20-25 KT WINDS PERSIST EARLY THIS MORNING FROM THE MONA PASSAGE W ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN TO 82W...AS WELL AS THROUGH THE TURKS AND CAICOS AND WINDWARD PASSAGE. A LOW LEVEL DEFORMATION ZONE WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS NE TO SW ACROSS S CENTRAL FLORIDA AND INTO THE E CENTRAL GULF. A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED INTO THE N AND NW GULF DURING THE PAST 18 HOURS...WITH GLOBAL MODELS SUGGESTING GALES CURRENTLY BEGINNING TO DEVELOP NW OF THIS BOUNDARY...AND DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW NEAR 24N95W. FRONT WAS FROM FLORIDA BIG BEND TO LOW TO MEXICAN COAST NEAR 20N97W AT 06Z. A 03Z ASCAT PASS SUGGESTED GALES BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ALONG MEXICAN COAST DUE W OF THE LOW...AND ALONG THE SE TEXAS COAST...WHICH HAVE BEEN SUGGESTED AREAS BY BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF IN RECENT RUNS. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO RUN SLOWLY NE ALONG THE FRONT DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS ALLOWING NLY WINDS WILL SPILL INTO BACK SIDE AND PUSH FRONT INTO WRN BAY OF CAMPECHE... WHILE REMAINDER OF FRONT SINKS GRADUALLY INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA. A BROAD ZONE OF 12+ FT SEAS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS NW SEMICIRCLE OF LOW AND EXTEND S INTO WRN BAY OF CAMPECHE BY 00Z THU...WHILE SEAS BUILD 6-9 FT ACROSS ALL BUT THE SE PORTIONS OF THE GULF. LOOK FOR GALES TO CONTINUE ACROSS SAME GENERAL AREA AS CURRENTLY GOING...POSSIBLY EXPANDING/ELONGATING...AND ALSO DEVELOP W OF FRONT S OF 22/23N. THE S/W WILL THEN BEGIN TO INFLUENCE THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM THU AND BEGIN TO USHER THE SURFACE LOW NE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR POTENTIAL OF GALES ALONG THE LOUISIANA COAST SHIFTING E ALONG THE NE GULF COASTAL WATERS AND INLAND THU NIGHT. AS THE LOW AND FRONTAL SYSTEM THEN MOVE INTO FLORIDA FRI AFTERNOON STRONG SW TO WSW FLOW WILL MOVE INTO MUCH OF THE W COAST OF FLORIDA FRI AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH SQUALLS AND GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS LIKELY. WWIII RESPONDS BY BUILDING SEAS 9-12 FT ACROSS THE SE GULF S OF TAMPA AREA...WITH PEAK SEAS OFFSHORE OF FT MEYERS. HIGH SURF AND SOME COASTAL EROSION SHOULD ACCOMPANY THIS EVENT THROUGH SAT NIGHT. LOW IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN ACROSS THE WRN ATLC SAT AND SUN WITH GALES LIKELY AGAIN ACROSS THE SE QUAD OF THE LOW. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE EVOLUTION OF THIS DEVELOPMENT AS SEVERAL LOW ARE SUGGESTED BY GFS...WHILE ECMWF OF FOCUSING MOST ENERGY WITH A SURFACE LOW RIDING NE ALONG THE SE U.S. COASTLINE...WHERE GALES WOULD BE LIKELY ALONG THE COASTS IN THE NW AND WRN SEMICIRCLE OF A LOW. LOOKS LIKE A BIG WAVE EVENT SHAPING UP WITH THIS SYSTEM FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR ALL OF THE WRN ATLC DOWN THROUGH THE BAHAMAS AND NRN CARIBBEAN. WARNINGS... ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ080-082...GALE WARNING W AND NW OF COLD FRONT S OF 29N W OF 94W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER STRIPLING