000 AGXX40 KNHC 130757 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION. NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 255 AM EST SUN DEC 13 2009 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W GULF OF MEXICO... SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE W GULF YDA HAS LIFTED NNE AND INTO SE LOUISIANA THIS MORNING...WITH WEAK COLD FRONT TRAILING SW THEN S TO MEXICAN COAST JUST S OF TAMPICO. SE-S RETURN FLOW CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS REMAINDER OF GULF AT 10-15 KT AND SEAS 5-6 FT...EXCEPT NEAR 20 KT ALONG THE SE LOUISIANA COAST WHERE SEAS ARE LIKELY A BIT HIGHER. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS QUITE AN EXTENSIVE COVERAGE OF MOSTLY LOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF...ALONG AND NW OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WHERE SLY FLOW IS OVERRUNNING THE FRONT...AND SWLY FLOW IN THE MID LEVELS CONTINUES TO PRODUCE STRATIFORM PRECIP...BECOMING WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE SE GULF STATES. MARINE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE GULF WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE THROUGH TUE AS THE WEAK LOW LIFTS OUT TO THE NE AND DRAGS WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG THE N AND NE PORTIONS...WITH WINDS AND SEAS GENERALLY REMAINING 10-15 KT AND 3-4 FT...OR LESS TONIGHT THROUGH TUE. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE NEXT FRONT BLASTING INTO THE NW GULF LATE TUE AND ONCE AGAIN MAINLY AFFECTING THE N HALF OF THE BASIN THROUGH EARLY THU...WITH NE TO E WINDS 20-25 KT N OF THE FRONT...AND SEAS 8-11 FT N AND NW PORTIONS...AND ISOLATED AREAS TO NEAR 30 KT POSSIBLE. MODELS SUGGEST CHANCE FOR A DEEP LAYERED SURFACE LOW TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT ACROSS N OR NW PORTIONS FRI MORNING AND MOVE E...YIELDING THE POTENTIAL FOR SHORT LIVED GALES FRI AND FRI NIGHT. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS W OF 55W... GALE WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE SW PORTION OF THE CARIBBEAN S OF 14N BETWEEN 71W AND 78W AND IS FORECAST TO LAST INTO AT LEAST EARLY THIS EVENING...BUT COULD VERY WELL LAST LONGER AS RIDGING TO THE N OF THE AREA IN COMBINATION WITH LOWER PRES OVER S AMERICA MAINTAINS A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT. A 0240 UTC ASCAT PASS SHOWED A SUBSTANTIAL AREA OF 25-30 KT WINDS BETWEEN 72-75W...BUT THIS NARROW FOOTPRINT IS NOT AMPLE ENOUGH TO SAMPLE THE ENTIRE AREA WHERE GALES AREA SUSPECTED. THIS ASCAT PASS ALSO REVEALS 25-30 KT FLOW THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGES AND S OF HISPANIOLA AND DOWNSTREAM OF THE MONA PASSAGES. A STRONG LLVL JET CONTINUES ACROSS THE BASIN ALONG 15-16N AND IS ENHANCING THE FLOW ACROSS THE N HALF OF THE BASIN. SURFACE HIGH OFF OF HATTERAS REGION WILL SLIDE E NEXT FEW DAYS WITH WEAKER HIGH REPLACING IT ACROSS THE W ATLC MON NIGHT THAT WILL GRADUALLY SETTLE SE ALONG 29-30N THROUGH EARLY WED. WWIII CURRENTLY FORECASTING SEAS 8-12 FT ACROSS MOST OF THE BASIN...WITH SEAS TO 16 FT JUST DOWNWIND OF THE GALES OFF THE COLOMBIA COAST. LITTLE SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE THIS FRESH FLOW ACROSS THE BASIN IS EXPECTED UNTIL TUE-WED WHEN THE HIGH SINKS SE OF 30N AND BEGINS TO COLLAPSE...THUS WEAKENING THE PRES GRADIENT. FRESH TRADES OF 20-25 KT ARE ALSO FOUND E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES THIS MORNING...EXTENDING E TO 50W PER A RECENT ASCAT PASS...WITH SEAS 7-10 FT IN ELY WIND SWELL. NW-N LONG PERIOD SWELL WILL BEGIN TO INVADE THE REGION W OF 68W THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AND INCREASE SEAS TO 9-12 FT BY TUE MORNING. TRADES WILL BACK OFF QUICKLY MON INTO TUE AS HIGH PRES RIDGE ACROSS THE ATLC WEAKENS. SW N ATLC W OF 55W... THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY CAN BE SEEN CLEARLY ON SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM NEAR 25N55W TO THE NW BAHAMAS AND THEN INTO NE FLORIDA...WITH HIGH PRES TO THE NE PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF 25-30 KT WINDS W OF 70W INTO THE FLORIDA COASTAL WATERS. SEAS ACROSS THE AREA N OF THE FRONT ARE LIKELY RUNNING 10-12 FT AND COULD BUILD A FEW FT FURTHER OVERNIGHT N THROUGH NE OF THE BAHAMAS. S OF THE FRONT RECENT ASCAT PASSES SUGGEST 15-20 KT FLOW BETWEEN 55-65W INCREASING TO 20-25 KT THROUGH THE BAHAMAS AND ACROSS CUBA AND THE FLORIDA STRAITS. 8-9 FT SEAS AREA QUITE POSSIBLE IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE IN THIS STRONG FLOW...7-8 FT OFF THE NE COAST OF CUBA...AND 6-7 FT THROUGH THE STRAITS. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO LIFT N AND BECOME DIFFUSE NEXT 24 HOURS AS ANOTHER LOW MOVES NE OFF THE E COAST OF THE U.S. DRAGGING A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS NW PORTIONS OF THE AREA MON-TUE. THIS WILL LEAD TO A QUICKLY DIMINISHING WINDS AND SEAS LATE MON THROUGH EARLY WED...BEFORE THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES OFF THE E COAST WED AND BEGINS TO AFFECT N PORTIONS OF THE AREA WATERS BY WED NIGHT. WARNINGS... ATLC... NONE. CARIBBEAN...CORRECTED .AMZ084 AND AMZ086...GALE WARNING S OF 14N BETWEEN 71W AND 78W GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. $$ FORECASTER STRIPLING