000
AGXX40 KNHC 110729
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
230 AM EST FRI DEC 11 2009

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND 
SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W

GULF OF MEXICO...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM SW FLORIDA TO A 1012 MB LOW PRES AREA 
CENTERED NEAR 22N95W. BUOY DATA ALONG WITH A 03Z ASCAT SHOW NE 
TO E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT N OF FRONT...WITH SEAS TO 9 FT IN THE NW 
GULF DUE TO E SWELL. THE LOW PRES WILL SHIFT INTO THE NW GULF 
THROUGH EARLY SAT...THEN LIFT OUT TO THE NE THROUGH N FLORIDA 
AND GEORGIA SAT AND SUN. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS N 
ACCORDINGLY...ALLOWING THE STRONG EAST WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN 
GULF TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND DIMINISH THIS WEEKEND AS THE LOW 
PRES MOVES OUT OF THE AREA. A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS FROM EAST TO 
WEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF SUN INTO MON. LIGHT TO MODERATE 
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL IN ALL BUT THE FAR WESTERN GULF 
WHERE RETURN FLOW WILL INCREASE MON AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT 
MOVING THROUGH TEXAS. THIS FRONT WILL PUSH OFF THE TEXAS COAST 
LATE MON NIGHT/EARLY TUE MORNING. GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS 
CONTINUES TO INDICATE STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW WILL FOLLOW THE 
FRONT. MAIN ISSUE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR GALE FORCE WINDS IN 
THE SW GULF ALONG THE MEXICAN COAST BY TUE NIGHT BEHIND THE 
FRONT.

CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W...
SHIP...BUOY...ASCAT AND WINDSAT DATA SHOW 20 TO 25 KT TRADES 
FROM EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS THROUGH THE CENTRAL 
CARIBBEAN...WITH WINDS AS HIGH AS 30 KT OFF THE COAST OF 
COLOMBIA. A PAIR OF SHIP OBSERVATIONS INDICATE STRONG SE WINDS 
OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS...AN INDICATION THAT THE AREA OF 
STRONGER TRADES IS EXPANDING INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN IN RESPONSE 
TO HIGH PRES BUILDING OVER THE SE UNITED STATES BEHIND A FRONT 
MOVING THROUGH FLORIDA. WINDS MAY DIMINISH SLIGHTLY OVER THE 
EASTERN CARIBBEAN AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE WATERS NE OF 
BAHAMAS...BREAKING UP THE RIDGE. THIS SLIGHT REPRIEVE WILL BE 
SHORT LIVED HOWEVER...AS THE RIDGE BEHIND THE FRONT BUILDS OFF 
THE COAST INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC.  WINDS WILL DIMINISH ACROSS ALL 
BUT THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BY MID WEEK AS THE HIGH PRES WEAKENS N 
OF THE AREA. PERSISTENT STRONG TRADES WILL E SWELL WILL BUILD 
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA FROM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES THROUGH 
THE SW CARIBBEAN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH COMBINDED SEA 
HEIGHTS REACHING AS HIGH AS 14 FT OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA.

SW N ATLC W OF 55W...
FRESH TRADES ARE NOTED ON ASCAT DATA S OF A SURFACE RIDGE ALONG 
25N. BUOY 41010 AND ASCAT DATA SHOW MODERATE TO FRESH NW FLOW N 
OF A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM 31N73W TO S FLORIDA. THE FRONT 
WILL REACH FROM BERMUDA TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA...WITH N TO NE 
WINDS INCREASING AS HIGH PRES MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST N OF THE 
FRONT. WINDS WILL VEER SE THEN SW OVER THE WATERS N OF BAHAMAS 
THIS WEEKEND AS THE HIGH PRES MOVE EAST...IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT 
FRONT DUE OFF THE COAST BY LATE SUN. N SWELL TO 10 FT WILL PUSH 
PAST THE WATERS NEAR BERMUDA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

WARNINGS...

ATLC...
NONE.   

CARIBBEAN...
.NONE.

GULF OF MEXICO...
.NONE.

$$
FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN