000 AGXX40 KNHC 021911 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 210 PM EST WED DEC 02 2009 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W GULF OF MEXICO... WELL DEFINED LOW PRESSURE 996 MB CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER N MISSISSIPPI IS PULLING A COLD FRONT FROM NEAR PENSACOLA FLORIDA THROUGH 25N90W TO NEAR VERACRUZ. A 1526 UTC HIGH RES ASCAT PASS SHOWED SOME 25-30 KT WINDS N OF 28N W OF THE FRONT WITH A TIGHT GRADIENT IN THE WIND FIELD WHICH WOULD INDICATE THAT AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA A RAPID DECREASE IN THE WINDS SHOULD OCCUR. BUOYS AND OTHER PLATFORMS E OF THE FRONT CURRENTLY ARE SHOWING 20-25 KT WINDS. THEREFORE HAVE DECIDED TO DROP THE GALE FOR THE GULF ENTIRELY THOUGH WILL USE...25 TO 30 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS WORDING THIS EVENING W OF THE FRONT IN THE AREA OF STRONGEST CAA ASSOCIATED WITH A LOBE OF COLDER AIR MOVING ACROSS E TEXAS. HIGHEST SEAS LATELY HAVE BEEN IN THE 10-12 FT RANGE WHICH SHOULD BE THE PEAK FOR THE SEAS INITIALLY. FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE SE AND STALL FROM SW FLORIDA TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE BY LATE THU AS THE WINDS VEER TO THE N AND NE. MODELS DIFFER IN THE TREATMENT OF THE NEXT SYSTEM SLATED TO AFFECT THE REGION WITH THE GFS/NAM/ECMWF ALIGNED AGAINST THE CMC/UKMET IN THE EVOLUTION OF LOW PRES OVER THE GULF. WILL LEAN TOWARD THE FORMER SUITE OF MODELS ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW WHICH MOVES FROM OFF S TEXAS LATE FRI OVER THE N PORTION OF THE CENTRAL GULF FRI NIGHT AND INTO W FLORIDA BY SAT. STRONG CAA WITH 1000-850 MB THICKNESSES OF 1300 M IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW SUPPORTS GALES LATE FRI AND FRI NIGHT OVER THE SW AND NW GULF ZONES. GFS ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES ARE UP TO 60-70 PCT WHICH IS FAIRLY HIGH FOR DAY 3. AS LOW SHEARS OUT SAT WIND DROP OFF TO NLY 20-25 KT BY LATE IN THE DAY. AREA OF HIGH PRES WILL RACE ACROSS CONUS ALONG 35N SAT NIGHT AND SUN WITH WINDS BECOMING SE OVER THE SW GULF LAT SUN. A NEW BUT MUCH WEAKER AREA OF LOW PRES DEVELOPS OVER THE NW GULF MON WITH MUCH WEAKER RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM. SW N ATLC... WARM FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM 29N65W TO 31N73W AND IS LIFTING N OF THE AREA IN INCREASINGLY SLY FLOW. A 1524 HIGH RESOLUTION ASCAT PASS SHOWED 20-25 KT WINDS GENERALLY N OF 29N. BUOYS 41012...41010 AND 41004 ALL REPORTING SLY WINDS OF 20-25 KT WHICH MATCH WELL WITH THE ASCAT DATA. MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT IN FORECASTING A BRIEF PERIOD OF 30 KT+ WINDS CENTERED BETWEEN 00-06Z TONIGHT BEFORE THE WINDS SHIFT AND DROP OFF W OF THE COLD FRONT. AREA OF GALE FORCE WINDS TOO CLOSE FOR COMFORT TO DROP AT THIS STAGE OF THE GAME THUS WILL LEAVE GALE GOING FOR SW N ATLC N OF 30N W OF 77W FOR THE FIRST PERIOD...TONIGHT ONLY. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SE TONIGHT AND THU...THEN STALL FROM 31N73W TO SE FL THU NIGHT THEN DRIFT SLOWLY W AS ATLC RIDGE BUILDS W ALONG 28N EARLY FRI. ELONGATED/SHEARED LOW PRES MOVING OUT OF THE GULF RIDES THE FRONT FRI NIGHT AND EARLY SAT. AS THE LOW MOVES N OF THE AREA SAT NIGHT AND SUN...THE FRONT IS REINVIGORATED AND MOVES SE TO EXTEND FROM 29N65W TO SE FLORIDA BY LATE SUN. FRONT STALLS AND DRAPES ACROSS THE AREA FROM 28N65W TO SE FLORIDA MON WITH A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRES SLIDING ALONG THE FRONT. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... BROAD AREA OF LOW CLOUDS OBSERVED OVER CARIBBEAN RACING NW IN 15-20 KT SE FLOW. GRADIENT SHOULD SUPPORT 20-25 KT ALONG COAST OF COLOMBIA THROUGH EXTENDED PERIOD WITH ELY TRADES ABOUT 20 KT OVER ALL WATERS E OF 80W. COLD FRONT OVER THE GULF STILL EXPECTED TO ABRUPTLY STALL JUST N OF THE YUCATAN CHANNEL THU THEN DRIFT BACK NW FRI. LOW PRES MOVES ACROSS THE GULF FRI NIGHT AND SAT AND DRAGS A STRONGER VERSION OF THIS FRONT INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN LATE SAT INTO SUN BEFORE STALLING. BROAD ELY TRADES RESUME MON. WARNINGS... ATLC... AMZ080...GALE WARNING N OF 30N W OF 77W. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... GMZ080...GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED LATE FRI AND FRI NIGHT. GMZ082...GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRI NIGHT N OF FRONT AND W OF 95W. $$ FORECASTER COBB