000 AGXX40 KNHC 010715 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 215 AM EST TUE DEC 01 2009 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W GULF OF MEXICO... COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS FL BIG BEND TO NEAR 28N85W WHERE FRONT HAS LOST ITS SE PUSH AND ANALYZED AS STATIONARY TO A SHARP FRONTAL WAVE AT 26N94.5W WITH THE STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUING S TO THE CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE. SLIGHT HINT ATTM OF CYCLONIC TURNING ON NIGHT CHANNEL AT 26.5N96.5W BUT COASTAL RADARS NOT SHOWING MUCH TWIST THRU 06Z. ANYWAY EXPECT SURFACE LOW TO START AROUND 09Z. DO NOT SEE MUCH DIFFERENCE THIS MORNING EXCEPT LOW PRES WILL MOVE NE AND INLAND A LITTLE FURTHER W THAN FORECAST YESTERDAY. STILL EXPECT SLY MINIMAL GALE MIDDAY TODAY THROUGH LATE WED. NWW3 SUGGESTING MAX OF 18 FT DUE TO GFS HAVING SLY 40 KT MAX WHICH MAY BE OVERDONE A LITTLE SO WILL TONE DOWN MAX SEAS A COUPLE OF FT. GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF ON STRENGTH OF SECONDARY COLD SURGE AND NOW SUGGESTS WINDS WILL CLOCK TO N-NE AND DROP OFF TO 10-15 KT OVER THE N WATERS BY SUNSET THU...BUT THEN INCREASE MIDDAY FRI. MODELS NOW SEEM TO LIKE A SOLUTION WHERE THE FRONT BACKS UP OVER THE S AND SW WATERS FRI WITH ANOTHER LOW PRES DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE OR ALONG THE TX COAST. WINDS W OF THE ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL BE STRONG...THOUGH NOT QUITE BUYING GFS 40-50 KT FOR FRI NIGHT AT THIS TIME. A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY FOR FRI AND SAT FORECAST. SW N ATLC... ONLY A SLIGHT TRACE OF CLOUDS ALONG THE FRONTAL REMNANTS OVER THE SE BAHAMAS SO DROPPED THIS SYNOPTIC FEATURE W OF 60W ON ALL GRAPHICS. E-W RIDGE IS ALONG 27-28N E OF THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS AS EXPECTED. COLD FRONT HAS MOVED OFF GEORGIA COAST ALONG 32N79W TO 30N82W WITH SW 15 TO 20 KT WINDS AHEAD OF FRONT AND EXPECT NW FLOW BEHIND FRONT TO INCREASE TO 15-20 KT BY SUNRISE THIS MORNING. E SEGMENT OF FRONT SHOULD PASS THROUGH BERMUDA LATE TODAY WITH FRONT STALLING BRIEFLY ALONG 27-28N EARLY TONIGHT. REMNANTS OF FRONT WILL LIFT NE AS A WARM FRONT BY SUNRISE WED WITH WINDS QUICKLY CLOCKING TO S AND INCREASING TO 20 TO 30 KT OVER AREA N OF BAHAMAS W OF 75W MIDDAY WED...REACHING MINIMAL GALE AROUND SUNSET WED. SINCE PARENT LOW PRES WILL TRACK FURTHER W THE GALE CONDITIONS WILL ONLY AFFECT ATLC WATERS N OF 30N. EXPECT THESE MINIMAL GALE CONDITIONS TO SHIFT E IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT TO ABOUT 74W THROUGH WED NIGHT...WITH THE AREA OF GALE WINDS SHIFTING N OF FORECAST WATERS AROUND SUNRISE THU...NOTE A FEW HOURS EARLIER THAN PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED. GUIDANCE NOT TAKING THE FRONT AS FAR SE AND NOW SUGGESTING FRONT WILL STALL OVER BAHAMA CHANNEL FRI NIGHT. THEREAFTER GUIDANCE CONFLICTS BUT EXPECT ATLC RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN WITH SLY FLOW INCREASING OVER MOST OF THE AREA E OF THE STALLING FRONT. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... STILL SEE SOME FRONTAL REMNANTS FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO NE HONDURAS ATTM. ELY WINDS N OF THESE FRONTAL REMNANTS HAVE INCREASED TO 15-20 KT. GRADIENT SHOULD SUPPORT 20-25 KT ALONG COAST OF COLOMBIA THROUGH EXTENDED PERIOD. ELY TRADES 20 KT WILL ALSO INCREASE TO 20 KT LATE TONIGHT OVER ALL WATERS WITH SLY FLOW OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN CONTINUING AT 15-20 KT TILL NEXT COLD FRONT IN YUCATAN CHANNEL LATE WED NIGHT. FRONT WILL STALL FROM W CUBA TO BELIZE WITH ASSOCIATED NLY WINDS ONLY REACHING EXTREME NORTHERN WATERS OF YUCATAN CHANNEL THU. SLY WINDS CONTINUE OVER NW CARIBBEAN FRI PUSHING FRONTAL REMNANTS N OF AREA. FORECAST CONFIDENCE DROPS A LOT FRI NIGHT INTO SAT BUT MAY SEE FRONT RETURNING LATE SAT. WARNINGS... ATLC... AMZ088...GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED E OF FRONT LATE WED INTO EARLY THU N OF 29N W OF 74W... CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... GMZ080 AND GMZ084 AND GMZ086...GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED N OF 27N E OF 92W LATE TUE THROUGH LATE WED. $$ FORECASTER NELSON