000 AGXX40 KNHC 290655 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 145 AM EST SUN NOV 29 2009 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W GULF OF MEXICO... HIGH PRES CENTER CURRENTLY OVER N FL WILL SHIFT E OVER ATLC WITH ASSOCIATED E-W RIDGE ACROSS NORTHERN GULF RETRACTING E TONIGHT ALLOWING COLD FRONT TO MOVE OFF TX COAST AROUND SUNRISE MON. MODELS GENERALLY AGREE WITH FRONT ABRUPTLY STALLING FROM NW FLORIDA TO A FRONTAL WAVE NEAR 27N96W...WITH QUASI STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUING S TO WESTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE AT SUNRISE TUE. N TO NE FLOW IN WAKE OF FRONT EXPECTED TO REACH A 30 KT MAX LATE MON AFTERNOON WITH SEAS TO PERHAPS 10 FT MON NIGHT. MODELS AGREE WITH FRONTAL WAVE DEEPENING INTO LOW PRES CENTER TUE...THEN RACING NE ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND INLAND FL PANHANDLE MIDDAY WED. NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING S OF LOW WILL THEN MOVE QUICKLY E TO POSITION FROM FLORIDA BIG BEND TO NW YUCATAN PENINSULA SUNSET WED...AND MOVE SE OF ALL GULF WATERS AROUND SUNRISE THU. EXPECT WINDS BOTH W AND N OF FRONT TO MAX AT 30 KT THROUGH TUE...BUT GUIDANCE SUGGESTING SLY FLOW AHEAD OF FRONT WILL STRENGTHEN TO MINIMAL GALE LATE TUE. THUS POSTED EXPECTED GALE LABEL ON 72 HOUR GRAPHICS. SEEMS FETCH OF THE ESE FLOW WILL BE ENOUGH TO MAX SEAS AT 11-12 FT BRIEFLY TUE NIGHT...THEN SEAS CONTINUE TO GROW A FEW MORE FT WED OVER THE NE WATERS AS FLOW BECOMES SW. THE CONCERN THEN SHIFTS TO THE CAA BEHIND COLD FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL GULF WATERS WHERE CURRENT GUIDANCE IS NOW SUGGESTING A LARGE AREA OF 30 KT NW WINDS WITH HINTS OF MINIMAL GALE BRIEFLY LATE WED...BUT WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH TO 20-25 KT EARLY WED NIGHT AND ABOUT 10-15 KT BY THU NIGHT SO WILL HOLD OFF ON POST FRONTAL GALE FOR NOW. SW N ATLC... COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM 31N55W TO 23N65W THEN BECOMES QUASI STATIONARY THROUGH WINDWARD PASSAGE. EXPECTING THE SOUTHERN SEGMENT TO WEAKEN TO A BROAD SHEAR AXIS FROM 19N TO 23N BETWEEN 72W AND 55W TODAY THROUGH EARLY MON. WINDS N OF FRONT HAVE DIMINISHED TO MAX OF 15 KT. SEAS ARE RUNNING 10 TO 13 FT OVER AREA N OF 27N BETWEEN 70W AND 55W WITH 8 FT SEAS AS FAR S AS 23N E OF THE BAHAMIAN CHAIN. EXPECTING 12 FT SEAS TO SHIFT E OF 65W BY THIS AFTERNOON AND E OF 55W LATE TONIGHT. A 10 TO 12 SECOND NW TO N SWELL IS STILL EXPECTED TO PUSH S OVER WATERS E OF 70W THROUGH WED NIGHT. ELY WINDS 10 KT EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON OVER BAHAMA CHANNEL AND AS FAR S AS 22N W OF CENTRAL BAHAMAS WITH 2 FT OR LESS FOR COMFORTABLE RETURN PASSAGE TO SE FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUE. EASTERLY WINDS AT 10 TO 15 KT OVER SE BAHAMAS WILL CONTINUE WITH NLY SEAS TO 7 FT EXPOSED ATLC PASSAGES THROUGH TONIGHT. POST FRONTAL RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM BERMUDA TO GRAND BAHAMA SUNRISE MON THEN RETRACT E OF THE BAHAMAS ALONG 27N MON NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO MOVE OFF GEORGIA COAST MON NIGHT ACCOMPANIED BY A 15 TO 20 KT WIND SHIFT AS IT MOVES THROUGH ATLC WATERS N OF BAHAMAS TUE AND THROUGH BERMUDA TUE NIGHT. WINDS WILL QUICKLY CLOCK BEHIND THIS FRONT WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASING TO 20 TO 30 KT OVER AREA N OF BAHAMAS W OF 75W WED INCREASING TO GALE EARLY WED NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING OFF GEORGIA AROUND SUNRISE THU. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... FRONT IS DISSIPATING FROM WINDWARD PASSAGE TO N CENTRAL HONDURAS ATTM WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE OVER NW CARIBBEAN. MOISTURE GUIDANCE SUGGEST FRONTAL REMNANTS WILL MEANDER OVER NW CARIBBEAN THROUGH MON. WINDS N OF THE FRONT AT 15-20 KT PER LATEST ASCAT PASS. N SEGMENT OF FRONT WILL LIKELY WEAKEN JUST N OF MONA PASSAGE. ASSOCIATED WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD DIMINISH BELOW 20 KT NW CARIBBEAN THIS MORNING. GRADIENT SHOULD SUPPORT 25 OCCASIONALLY 30 KT...ALONG COAST OF COLOMBIA THROUGH EXTENDED PERIOD. 9 TO 12 SECOND N SWELLS WITH SEAS TO 8 FT WILL REACH ALONG 22N AROUND THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUING S TO ALONG 15N E OF THE CARIBBEAN LATE MON. SOUTHERLY FLOW SETS UP NW CARIBBEAN TUE...AND INCREASES TO 15 TO 20 KT TUE NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF NEXT FRONT IN YUCATAN CHANNEL WED NIGHT STALLING FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO HONDURAS THU NIGHT WITH NLY WINDS TO 20 KT BEHIND FRONT. NE TO E TRADES AT 15-20 KT ELSEWHERE. WARNINGS... ATLC... .NONE. AMZ088...GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED WED THROUGH THU E OF FRONT...N OF 29N BETWEEN 80W AND 68W CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. GMZ084 ANS GMZ086...GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED N OF 28N LATE TUE INTO WED. $$ FORECASTER NELSON