000 AGXX40 KNHC 250714 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 215 AM EST WED NOV 25 2009 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W UPPER LEVELS... DEEP LAYER RIDGE AXIS ALONG 70W. RIDGE COVERS MOST OF THE ATLANTIC AREA...THAT PART EAST OF 78W AND ALL OF THE CARIBBEAN AREA EXCEPT FOR THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AREA. MODERATE WINDS ARE TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE RIDGE WITH SOUTHWESTERLIES OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE ATLANTIC AREA WEST OF 78W. THE RIDGE WILL CONTRACT SOME TODAY AND THURSDAY AS A STRONG MIDDLE LATITUDE TROUGH MOVES OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN UNITED STATES. BY EARLY FRIDAY RIDGE WILL BE SOUTH OF ABOUT 22N AND MODERATE WESTERLIES WILL BE NORTH OF 22N WITH STRONG WESTERLIES OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA AND THE ATLANTIC AREA NORTH OF 27N WEST OF 72W. THE STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AND CONTRACT NORTHWARD SOME SATURDAY BUT MODERATE TO STRONG WESTERLIES WILL CONTINUE NORTH OF ABOUT 20N. LATE SUNDAY ANOTHER STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL BEGIN TO INTENSIFY OVER TEXAS INCREASING THE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. SURFACE... AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT NORTH OF THE TRADES THERE IS A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WITH WEAK SURFACE WINDS MOSTLY LESS THAN 15 KNOTS. COLD FRONT...ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG MIDDLE LATITUDE TROUGH...IS OVER THE WEST GULF OF MEXICO AND WILL MOVE TO FROM NORTH FLORIDA TO EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE MIDDAY TODAY AND MOVE TO THROUGH 31N75W TO WEST CUBA AND CONTINUE ON TO THE NORTHEAST TIP OF YUCATAN PENINSULA MIDDAY THURSDAY AND MOVE TO THROUGH 31N68W TO ACROSS EASTERN CUBA TO GULF OF HONDURAS MIDDAY FRIDAY AND TO 31N57W TO HISPANIOLA THEN DIFFUSE OVER THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN MIDDAY SATURDAY. A TROUGH IS AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH TONIGHT AND A WEAK LOW WILL DEVELOP WITHIN THE TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS FLORIDA TODAY AND BECOME ABSORBED BY THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT WHEN THE LOW MOVES OVER THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE ATLANTIC AREA TONIGHT. WINDS NEAR THE LOW WILL APPROACH 30 KNOTS. FRONTAL TROUGH WILL INTENSIFY FRIDAY AS THE STRONGEST PART OF THE SHORTWAVE MOVES PAST THE AREA WITH INCREASING SURFACE WINDS IN THE ATLANTIC AREA FRIDAY. WINDS WILL DECREASE SATURDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS AND BROAD RIDGE BUILDS ALONG 30N. ON SUNDAY RETURN FLOW BEGINS IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WITH NEXT COLD FRONT MOVING OFFSHORE TEXAS LATE SUNDAY. TRADES OF 20 KNOTS OR MORE ARE CONFINED TO SOUTH OF 17N EAST OF 82W TODAY. WINDS WILL BE UP TO 25 KNOTS IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THE WINDS WILL THEN WEAKEN TONIGHT AND THURSDAY AND REMAIN LESS THAN NORMAL FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE ABOVE MENTIONED FRONTAL TROUGH WEAKENS THE RIDGE NORTH OF THE AREA. OTHERWISE WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 20 KT. WARNINGS... ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. $$ FORECASTER LL