000 AGXX40 KNHC 150748 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 248 AM EST SUN NOV 15 2009 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W GULF OF MEXICO... A 1016 MB HIGH REMAINED CENTERED OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF THIS MORNING JUST OFF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI. THIS CONTINUES TO PRODUCE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ACROSS THE EAST AND CENTRAL GULF...AND SE RETURN FLOW OF 15 TO 20 KT ACROSS THE W AND EXTREME SW GULF. SEAS OF 2 FT OR LESS PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND E GULF...AND 3 TO 4 FT ACROSS THE W GULF W OF 93W WHERE THE RETURN FLOW PREVAILS. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT NE INTO THE SE US ON MONDAY...ENABLING A SURFACE COLD FRONT TO MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST MONDAY MORNING. THE FRONT IS FORECAST BY THE GFS TO REACH FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE SW TO THE SW GULF ALONG 94W BY TUE AFTERNOON WHEN THE UPPER TROUGH PROVIDING THE MOMENTUM FOR THE COLD FRONT BEGINS TO LIFT OUT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL HALT THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL STALL AND WEAKEN IN THIS SAME GENERAL LOCATION WED-THU. A BRIEF PERIOD OF GALE FORCE WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON TUE OVER THE SW GULF S OF 21N BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE SE US ON THU...WITH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW SHIFTING THE BOUNDARY W AND NWWARD ACROSS THE W GULF. SW N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W... 1005 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR 32N70W THIS MORNING CONTINUES TO DRIFT SE AND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THIS MOTION THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE SINKING MORE S MON AND TUE...REACHING NEAR 23.5N65W BY TUE EVENING...BEFORE THIS DEEP LAYERED LOW GETS PICKED UP BY A STRONG S/W TROF SWINGING SW THEN W ACROSS THE W CENTRAL ATLC MID WEEK. AN OLD COLD FRONT SPIRALS OUT OF THE LOW AND CROSSES 30N64W TO THE N COAST OF HISPANIOLA ALONG 71W. ACTIVE CONVECTION CONTINUES ALONG AND 5-10 DEGREES TO THE E OF THIS BOUNDARY UNDER EXCELLENT DIVERGENCE ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SUPPORTING UPPER TROUGH. THIS BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SLOWLY E AND SE WITH THE LOW OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS WITH PERSISTENT CNVTN ALONG AND E OF IT...REACHING THE MONA PASSAGE TONIGHT AND MOVING ACROSS PUERTO RICO MONDAY AND TO THE VIRGIN ISLANDS MONDAY NIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE VERY GRADUALLY...WITH EVENING SCATTEROMETER PASSES SHOWING A BROAD AREA OF 20-25 KT NW WINDS N OF 24N AND W OF 70W...WHERE SEAS WERE RUNNING 8-11 FT IN FADING NW SWELL AND OVERRUNNING N TO NE SWELL. E OF THE FRONT SCAT WINDS INDICATED 20-25 KT SLY FLOW WITH POCKETS OF 25-30 KT BETWEEN 60-97W. THE GFS CONTINUES AS THE LONE MODEL TRYING TO DEVELOP A MESO LOW OUT OF PERSISTENT DEEP CNVTN NEAR 27N58W THAT SLOWLY LIFTS N AND NE. I HAVE DISCOUNTED THIS AGAIN TONIGHT...WAITING TO SEE COME EVIDENCE OF AN ACTUAL LOW DEVELOPING. WINDS AND SEAS W OF THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO FADE VERY SLOWLY NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH CONTINUED PULSES OF N AND NE SWELL DOMINATING THE ATLC AND MOVING THROUGH THE ATLC PASSAGES OF THE CARIBBEAN. WAVE HEIGHTS HOWEVER WILL REMAIN BELOW 8 FT S OF 25N. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE OFF THE NE COAST OF THE US SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH AN INCREASE IN NE WINDS BUILDING BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS WILL GENERATE LONG PERIOD NE SWELLS THAT ARE FORECAST TO ENTER THE NW WATERS OF THE FORECAST AREA WED WITH SEAS POSSIBLY REACHING AS HIGH AS 13 FT BY THU AS A BROAD ZONE OF FRESH NE TO E WINDS JUST N OF THE SINKING FRONT SHIFTS S INTO THE AREA. CARIBBEAN SEA... OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS BECOME DIFFUSE FRONT HISPANIOLA SW INTO THE W HALF OF THE CARIB...WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS OR CNVTN COVERING ANY SIGNIFICANT PORTION OF THE BASIN THIS MORNING. INDUCED BROAD TROUGHING ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIB ALONG ABOUT 72W ATTM...WITH NELY FLOW TO THE W AND SE TO E FLOW TO THE E. EVENING QUIKSCAT PASS CONTINUED TO SHOW NNE 20 KT FLOW OFF THE COAST OF NICARAGUA TO THE W OF THE DISSIPATED FRONTAL TROUGH...WITH WINDS GENERALLY 15 KT OR LESS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN...AND SEAS 5 FT OR LESS. AS DISCUSSED ABOVE...THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DRAG E ACROSS THE NE CARIBBEAN ISLANDS NEXT 72 HOURS...BUT IS NOT EXPECTED TO REACH TOO FAR INTO THE CARIBBEAN...LIKELY NOT S OF 16N...AND AFFECT MAINLY THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE ISLANDS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN MODEST ACROSS MOST OF THE BASIN FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...WITH NELY FLOW ACROSS THE W HALF OF THE BASIN BY MID WEEK AROUND 15 KT COULD BECOME ENHANCED THROUGH THE PASSAGES AND ACROSS THE SW CARIB WHERE WINDS WILL PICK UP 15-20 KT AND SEAS BUILD 5-6 FT. WARNINGS... ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. $$ FORECASTER STRIPLING