000 AGXX40 KNHC 031939 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 PM EST TUE NOV 03 2009 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF FROM 25N81W TO 23N89W TO 18N93W. THIS FRONT WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY...AND BECOME LESS DEFINED OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN ACTIVE ALONG THE SW GULF ALONG THE FRONT. WITH MORNING QUIKSCAT PASS INDICATING WINDS IN THE 30 KT RANGE...AND AN ANTICIPATED TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRES OVER THE GULF STATES AND LOW PRES TO THE S OVER THE EPAC...ISSUED A GALE WARNING FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN STARTING THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES WHICH WILL INCREASE SURFACE WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN TO 20 TO 25 KT BY THURSDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER SHIFTS EASTWARD OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. SW N ATLC S OF 31N AND W OF 55W... A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT IS IN PLACE OVER THE FAR NW PORTION FROM 31N73W TO SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS FRONT WILL SHIFT EASTWARD AND EXTEND FROM 31N66W TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS BY WED. THE FRONT WILL BECOME DIFFUSE WED NIGHT INTO THU AS AIR MODIFICATION REDUCES THE RECOGNIZABLE FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SHIFT TOWARD THE EASTERN SEABOARD BY MIDWEEK PUSHING A STRONG SURFACE COLD FRONT OFF THE EAST COAST OF THE U.S. JUST N OF THE AREA ON THU. A STRONG NORTHERLY WIND SURGE SETS UP BEHIND THE FRONT LATE THU THROUGH SAT AS THE COMBINATION OF HIGH PRES BUILDING OVER THE SE U.S. STATES AND A LOW DEEPENING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST RESULTS IN A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT. NORTHERLY SWELL GENERATED BY THESE WINDS WILL PROPAGATE THROUGH THE AREA BUILDING SEAS UP TO 12 FT OVER THE NE PORTION BY SAT. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC W OF 55W... LOW NEAR 10N81W HAS THE POTENTIAL TO INTENSIFY INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE TONIGHT AS IT DRIFTS NORTHWARD. LATEST SATELLITE ANALYSIS ESTIMATED WINDS NEAR 25 KNOTS AROUND THE LOW. SHORT PERIOD WAVES OF 6 TO 8 FT WILL AFFECT THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE OUT TO 270 NM OF THIS FEATURE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ELSEWHERE...NORTHERLY SWELL UP TO 6 FT WITH PERIODS OF 10 TO 12 SECONDS CONTINUES TO PUSH THROUGH THE ATLANTIC PASSAGES FROM THE NW ATLANTIC. THIS SWELL WILL GRADUALLY DECAY THROUGH MIDWEEK. SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRES REMAINS CENTERED WELL N OF THE AREA WITH A LIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUING TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN RESULTING IN RARE LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADES. THE HIGH WILL REMAIN CENTERED WELL N OF THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEK ALLOWING FOR THE WEAK GRADIENT TO CONTINUE. WARNINGS... ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ082...GALE WARNING S OF 21N W OF 94W. $$ FORECASTER AL