000
AGXX40 KNHC 301851
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
245 PM EDT FRI OCT 30 2009

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND 
SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

GULF OF MEXICO...
LATEST QUIKSCAT PASS ALONG WITH BUOY AND CMAN OBSERVATIONS 
INDICATE THE COLD FRONT IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WITH NW 
SURFACE WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT WITH GUSTS NEAR 30 KT. E OF THE 
FRONT SE WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS PREVAILED. THE FRONT WILL MAKE 
SLOW PROGRESS EASTWARD...EXTENDING FROM SE LOUISIANA TO SW BAY 
OF CAMPECHE THIS EVENING AND FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND TO THE SE 
BAY OF CAMPECHE BY LATE SAT. ALL MODELS AGREE WITH GALE FORCE 
WINDS IN THE FAR SW GULF BY SATURDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL 
CONTINUE SE ON SUN...STALLING FROM SW FLORIDA TO THE NORTHERN 
YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM LATE SUN INTO MON. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY 
DIMINISH TO 15 TO 20 KT OUT OF THE NE ACROSS THE GULF. A 
REINFORCING IMPULSE WILL PUSH INTO THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES 
MON NIGHT AND TUE WITH NE WINDS FRESHENING TO 20 KT ACROSS MOST 
OF THE GULF. 

SW N ATLC S OF 31N AND W OF 55W...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM A BROAD 999 MB LOW NEAR 31N50W TO 
25N67W WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE NE PORTION OF THE ZONE 
WITH NE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT N OF THE FRONT TONIGHT. THE SURFACE 
LOW WILL MOVE SOUTHWEST TO NEAR 27N48W BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. 
SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THIS 
LOW...AND GALE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY SATURDAY NIGHT. IN 
ADDITION TO THE GALE CONDITIONS...LONG PERIOD SWELLS WILL SPREAD 
SOUTHWARD AND REACH THE LESSER ANTILLES...WITH SEAS OF 8-10 FEET 
BY SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WELL DEFINED SWELL TRAIN WILL PROPAGATE SW 
AND REACH AS FAR SOUTH AS THE ATLANTIC PASSAGES OF THE NE 
CARIBBEAN LATE SUN. GALE CONDITIONS WILL DECREASE ON SUNDAY AS 
THE LOW WILL THE MOVE NORTHWESTWARD SUNDAY THROUGH 
MONDAY...CENTERING IT NEAR BERMUDA BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS HIGH 
PRES OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC BUILDS WESTWARD. 

CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC W OF 55W...
C-MAN AND BUOY STATIONS REPORT INDICATE TRADES NEAR 15 TO 20 KT 
ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA...IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS AND 
ELSEWHERE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN. THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 
10-15 KT TONIGHT AS THE TIGHT PRES GRADIENT THAT HAS BEEN IN 
PLACE BETWEEN ATLC HIGH PRES TO THE N AND LOW PRES OVER NRN S 
AMERICA WEAKENS. NE-E WINDS OF 10-15 KT WILL THEN PERSIST 
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH THE WEAK 
PRES GRADIENT REMAINING OVER THE REGION. SEAS SUBSIDE THROUGH 
THE WEEKEND AS THE WINDS DIMINISH. LONG PERIOD 8 TO LOCALLY 10 
FT SWELLS ARE EXPECTED TO PROPAGATE SW INTO THE ATLANTIC 
PASSAGES LATE SUN AND MON...THEN SLOWLY SUBSIDE BY LATE TUE. 

WARNINGS...

ATLC...
.NONE.

CARIBBEAN...
.NONE.

GULF OF MEXICO...
.GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED SAT S OF 21N W OF 94W.

$$
FORECASTER AL