000
AGXX40 KNHC 181841
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
300 PM EDT SUN OCT 18 2009

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND 
SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

GULF OF MEXICO...
STRONG HIGH PRES RIDGE BEHIND COLD FRONT NOW OVER NW CARIBBEAN 
DOMINATES ENTIRE GULF REGION PRODUCING STRONG NE BREEZE.  HIGH 
PRES WEAKEN AND SHIFT E OF AREA SUN ALLOWING FOR WINDS AND SEAS 
TO DIMINISH.  MODEL GUIDANCE HAD GOOD HANDLE ON WIND...SEAS AND 
TIMING OF THIS EVENT SO WILL TRUST FORECAST OF UPCOMING EVENT. 
SECOND COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO FAR NW GULF LATE THU 
ALLOWING MODERATE S RETURN FLOW TO DEVELOP W OF 96W WED.  

CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC W OF 55W...
COLD FRONT PRESENTLY OVER NW CARIBBEAN DRIFTING SE ACROSS BASIN 
THEN STALL FROM EASTERN CUBA TO COAST OF NICARAGUA MON MORNING 
AND DISSIPATE THROUGH WED.  STRONG N WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS TO 
10 FT FOLLOW FRONTAL PASSAGE.  SWELLS SLIGHTLY HIGHER NEAR 
YUCATAN PASSAGE.  WEAK TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 80W LIKELY TO MERGE 
WITH COLD FRONT WITHIN NEXT 24-36 HRS CONTRIBUTING ABUNDANT 
MOISTURE TO ENHANCE CONVECTION OVER OVER GULF OF HONDURAS AND 
POSSIBLY EXTEND INTO WESTERN COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA TOO.  

LOW LEVEL TROUGH EXPECTED TO FORM ALONG 82-83W WED THEN DRIFT N 
THROUGH SW CARIBBEAN THROUGH FRI.  SECOND TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 
57W S OF 13N MOVE ACROSS TROPICAL ATLC WATERS TONIGHT ACROSS 
WINDWARD ISLANDS EARLY MON AND ACROSS EASTERN CARIBBEAN MON 
THROUGH TUE. 

SW N ATLC S OF 31N AND W OF 65W...
COLD FRONT EXTEND FROM 31N70W TO 23N78W WITH STRONG GUSTY BREEZE 
BEHIND IT AND BUILDING SEAS TO 12 FT.  FRONT MOVE E AND EXTEND 
FROM 31N68W TO CENTRAL CUBA TONIGHT THEN FROM 31N65W TO E CUBA 
MON EVENING.  FRONT BECOME DIFFUSE LATE TUE.  HIGH PRES JUST N 
OF AREA MAINTAINS MODERATE BREEZE ACROSS BASIN AS IT DRIFT E.  

WARNINGS...

ATLC...
.NONE.

CARIBBEAN...
.NONE.

GULF OF MEXICO...
.NONE.

$$
FORECASTER WALLY BARNES