000 AGXX40 KNHC 111749 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 PM EDT SUN OCT 11 2009 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO...A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM FL BIG BEND TO 25N95W TO S CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE. NLY WINDS TO 20 KT WILL PERSIST BOTH NW AND W OF FRONT INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON THEN RAPIDLY DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KT BY SUNSET. WEAK HIGH PRES EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE NE GULF TONIGHT ALONG ATLC RIDGE THAT EXTENDS ACROSS FL. AS RIDGE BUILDS W IT WILL PUSH THE FRONTAL REMNANTS W AND NW INLAND BY EARLY TUE NIGHT. THE FRONTAL REMNANTS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WEAKEN OVER THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAINS TILL NEXT COLD FRONT ARRIVES ALONG 31N TO THE E OF 90W WED...WITH THE TAIL END OF FRONT JUST DIPPING INTO THE EXTREME NE WATERS WED NIGHT. BY THEN RIDGE WILL HAVE SHIFTED S TO ALONG 26N IN ADVANCE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING INTO NW WATERS AROUND SUNSET THU. FRONT REACHES FROM FL BID BEND TO NE OLD MEXICO SUNRISE FRI AND APPEARS STRONG ENOUGH TO REACH FL STRAITS SUNRISE SAT. EXPECT SLY TO INCREASE EXTREME N WATERS TO 25 KT AND CAA TO ALSO MAX AT 25 KT BRIEFLY BEHIND FRONT. SUBTROPICAL SW N ATLC... AN INVERTED TROUGH...PERSISTENT REMNANTS OF TC HENRI...IS OVER AND JUST N OF THE WINDWARD PASSAGE ATTM. I WILL AGAIN FORECAST THIS TROUGH TO FINALLY FILL IN BY LATE TONIGHT. A WEAK COLD HAS PUSHED INTO THE WATERS E OF NE FL BUT EXPECTED TO STALL EARLY TONIGHT AND DISSIPATE MON. SURFACE HIGH PRES FORMED S OF BERMUDA HAS RIDGE W ALONG 28-29N. NE TO E OVER WATERS S OF 24N WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KT MON AND MON NIGHT THEN DIMINISH AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS S TO ALONG 27N TUE. SLY FLOW WILL INCREASE TO 15 KT N OF THE RIDGE TUE WITH A SECOND COLD FRONT OFF GA COAST TUE AFTERNOON THEN RACING PAST BERMUDA EARLY WED ABRUPTLY STALLING WED NIGHT. FRONT RETURNS NE AS WARM FRONT THU PASSING BY BERMUDA BY MIDNIGHT. SW FLOW WILL INCREASE 15 TO 25 KT ALL WATERS N OF BAHAMAS BY SUNRISE FRI IN ADVANCE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT ALONG GA COAST MIDDAY FRI WITH NW FLOW EXPECTED TO 20 KT BEHIND FRONT FRI NIGHT PER CURRENT GUIDANCE. TROPICS...A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 76W THIS AFTERNOON HAS BEEN MOVING W AT 15 KT AND THIS MOTION SHOULD MOVE THE WAVE AXIS TO ALONG 82W SUN AND THROUGH THE GULF OF HONDURAS BY NOON TUE. ASSOCIATED CONVECTION REMAINS S OF 14N BUT W OF WAVE AXIS TODAY. N SWELLS HAVE PUSH INTO THE TROPICS TO ALONG 14N INCLUDING NE CARIBBEAN PASSAGES THIS MORNING AND SHOULD REACH N COAST S AMERICA AROUND SUNRISE MON ALL THE WHILE MIXING WITH NE TRADE SWELLS. A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE ALONG ABOUT 41W ATTM MOVING W AT 15 KT SHOULD REACH ALONG 55W LATE TUE AND ALONG 65W THU AND 74W FRI NIGHT. ELY TRADES SEEM TO GRADUALLY RELAX THROUGH MID WEEK INCREASING AGAIN IN WAKE OF THIS SECOND TROPICAL WAVE. WARNINGS... ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. $$ FORECASTER NELSON