000
AGXX40 KNHC 080730
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
330 AM EDT THU OCT 08 2009

GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1014 MB SURFACE WAVE HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONT 
OVER TX NEAR 30N96W WITH THE COLD PORTION OF THE FRONT EXTENDING 
NORTHEAST TOWARD THE NC COAST. HIGH PRES BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT 
WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST...ALLOWING FOR MEAN 
HIGH PRES TO REMAIN OVER EASTERN GULF TODAY AND FRI. 
MEANWHILE...THE SURFACE WAVE AND STATIONARY FRONT IS EXPECTED 
TO LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE PLAINS/MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON THE 
LEADING EDGE OF THE NEXT DEEP LAYER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE 
PLAINS BY MORNING. AS THE TROUGHING MOVES INTO TX...EXPECT 
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW TO KICK UP A NOTCH WITH A SOLID AREA OF 20 
KT WINDS EXPECTED OVER THE NW GULF TONIGHT AND FRI BETWEEN THE 
COLD FRONT AND THE RIDGING OVER THE E GULF. THE MODELS HAVE COME 
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON DIPPING THIS FRONT S INTO THE WESTERN 
GULF OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS LOW SHOULD MOVE NE AWAY FROM 
FORECAST WATERS SUN AS THE FRONT WEAKENS OVER THE GULF. STRONG 
HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EARLY NEXT WEEK AND 
A N TO S PRES GRADIENT BUILDS BETWEEN THIS RIDGING AND LOW PRES 
OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND NW CARIBBEAN...WITH WINDS TO 20 KT 
BUILDING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF.

CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC...
TROPICAL DEPRESSION HENRI AT 19.5N 59.7W AT 0300 UTC WITH WINDS 
OF 30 KT AND GUSTS TO 40 KT IS FORECAST TO REMAIN A 30 KT 
DEPRESSION OVERNIGHT AS IT MOVES TO 20.1N 61.3W THIS MORNING AND 
WEAKEN TO A REMNANT LOW NEAR 20.7N 63.0W THU EVENING. THE 
REMNANTS OF HENRI WILL CONTINUE ON A W TRACK AT 5-10 KT PASSING 
N OF PUERTO RICO FRI NIGHT. THE ASCAT PASS FROM 0204 UTC SHOWS 
WINDS INTO THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE CONTINUE S OF 15N IN THE 
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN COURTESY OF THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND 
ASSOCIATED 1019 MB HIGH PRES NEAR 27N85W THAT HAS INCREASED THE 
PRES GRADIENT OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BETWEEN IT AND THE 
TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY ALONG 73W S OF 17N. THIS WAVE WILL EXIT 
THE CARIBBEAN FRI NIGHT. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 53W S OF 
15N HAS LIFTED N AS IT TRAVELED W UNDER A WEAKNESS IN THE 
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE WAVE IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE CARIBBEAN 
FRI AND MOVE THROUGH THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SUN. THE 0022 UTC 
ASCAT PASS SHOWS WINDS IN THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE N OF WHERE THE 
WAVE INTERSECTS THE ITCZ AT 08N. THE PRES GRADIENT HERE IS 
STRONG AS THE 1022 MB HIGH PRES SYSTEM NEAR 25N43W HAS A RIDGE 
AXIS THAT EXTENDS JUST TO THE NE OF THE LOW AND ON THE E SIDE OF 
HENRI WITH THE 1016 MB LINE DROPPING S OF 14N. 

SW N ATLC...
THE QUIKSCAT PASS FROM 2302 UTC SHOWS WINDS PICKING UP TO 20 KT 
N OF 30 N OVER FAR NE WATERS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY 
MOVING OFF THE GA/SC COAST. THESE WINDS WILL INCREASE AND SHIFT 
E OF FORECAST WATERS AS THE FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE. THE FRONT WILL 
DIP INTO N WATERS TODAY AND FRI...SHIFTING WINDS NORTHEASTERLY 
BEHIND IT. THE FRONT WILL MOVE E OF THE AREA AND HIGH PRES WILL 
BUILD FROM THE N ON FRI. MEANWHILE...THE REMNANTS OF HENRI ARE 
EXPECTED TO PASS INTO SE WATERS AS A 20 KT REMNANT LOW FRI 
MORNING...OPENING INTO A TROUGH OVER THE WEEKEND AND CONTINUING 
ON A W TRACK AT 5-10 KT. THE MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON THIS 
SCENARIO...BUT DIFFER WITH THE AMOUNT OF ENERGY THAT IS SHED 
FROM THE LOW LEVEL CENTER AS THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH ASSOCIATED 
WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT AMPLIFY TO ITS N OVER THE 
CENTRAL ATLC. FINALLY...ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO GA/SC 
ON SAT. THE MODELS AGREE ON DEVELOPING A SURFACE WAVE ALONG THE 
FRONT OVER THE SE U.S. BY SAT WHICH WILL HOLD UP ITS EASTWARD 
PROGRESS. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THE FRONT BARELY CLIPPING 
NW WATERS ON MON.
 
WARNINGS...

ATLC...
.NONE.

CARIBBEAN...
.NONE.

GULF OF MEXICO...
.NONE.

$$
FORECASTER SCHAUER CLARK