000 AGXX40 KNHC 051846 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 245 PM EDT MON OCT 05 2009 ABOVE THE SURFACE... IN THE UPPER LEVELS A TROUGH FROM NEAR 31N54W TO TO ACROSS HAITI AND TO SOUTHERN NICARAGUA. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST NORTH OF THE GREATER ANTILLES AND WEAKEN BECOMING DIFFUSE NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LESSER ANTILLES WEDNESDAY. FROM THE GREATER ANTILLES SOUTHWARD THE TROUGH WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE WEST PASSING OVER CENTRAL AMERICA WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC WATERS TONIGHT AND BY TUESDAY NIGHT EXTEND FROM 31N59W TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT EXTEND THROUGH 26N55W TO HISPANIOLA TO JAMAICA THEN DEVELOP INTO A UPPER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION SOUTH OF EAST CUBA THURSDAY NIGHT AND MOVE WEST AND WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FRIDAY NIGHT THEN DIFFUSE OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO SATURDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE AND BROAD RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE AREA. IN THE MIDDLE LEVELS A WEAK RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA ALONG 24N WILL EXPAND AND AND STRENGTHEN SOME THROUGH TUESDAY WITH A LARGE HIGH CENTERED OVER FLORIDA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. AT THE SURFACE... FOR THE CARIBBEAN SOUTH OF 20N THE TRADE WINDS WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY LESS THAN NORMAL WITH EASTERLY WINDS IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE. IN THE ATLANTIC AREA INITIALLY THE WINDS WILL ALSO BE SLIGHTLY LESS THAN NORMAL BUT A TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE PAST 55W TUESDAY WITH INCREASING WINDS NEAR THE WAVE. THE WAVE WILL SLOW ITS FORWARD MOTION AS IT APPROACHES THE LESSER ANTILLES. THE MODEL DOES NOT FORECAST MUCH WIND NEAR THE WAVE BUT INCREASED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL ACCOMPANY THE WAVE AND A LOW MAY DEVELOP WITH THE WAVE WITH HIGHER WINDS NEAR THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION. SEAS WILL BE LESS THAN NORMAL IN THE ATLANTIC THROUGH TUESDAY BECAUSE OF A LACK OF EASTERLY SWELL KEEPING THE SEAS IN THE 5 TO 7 FT RANGE. ON WEDNESDAY SWELL FROM EAST WILL INCREASE THE SEAS NORTH OF 15N IN THE ATLANTIC AREA TO 8 TO 10 FT. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL MOSTLY BE LESS THAN TO 20 KNOTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20 KNOTS. THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH AS A COLD FRONT REACHES THE TEXAS COAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND EXTENDS FROM SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA TO NORTHERN MEXICO SATURDAY NIGHT. N TO NE WINDS OF 20 KNOTS WILL BE NW OF THE FRONT. LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WILL INCREASE THE SOUTHWESTERLY WIND TO 20 KNOTS IN THE NORTHERN PART OF THE ATLANTIC AREA NORTH OF 30N WEDNESDAY. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF GEORGIA COAST LATE WEDNESDAY. CONTINUING STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS EAST OF THE FRONT WILL REACH 20 TO 25 KT NORTH OF 27N WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. BY FRIDAY THESE WINDS WILL BE EAST OF THE OFFSHORE AREA. NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BRIEFLY REACH 20 KNOTS NORTH OF 30N. ON FRIDAY A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST AND REACH FROM NEAR 30N90W TO THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS OF 20 KT WILL BE NW OF THE FRONT. OTHERWISE WINDS WILL BE 15 KNOTS OR LESS. WARNINGS... ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE $$ FORECASTER LL