000 AGXX40 KNHC 040725 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 330 AM EDT SUN OCT 04 2009 GULF OF MEXICO... THE STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST WILL SHIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TODAY. LOW PRES IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER SE TX LATER TODAY AND WILL ANCHOR THIS FRONT N OF FORECAST WATERS. SOUTHERLY WINDS CURRENTLY TO 20 KT IN THE NW GULF SHOULD PERSIST UNTIL MON MORN WHEN THE LOW SHIFTS NE AWAY FROM THE REGION. HIGH PRES BUILDS W ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A DEEP LAYER LOW MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY TUE...WITH THE COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO TX. AT THE SAME TIME...HIGH PRES IS EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE NE GULF. THIS WILL INCREASE THE PRES GRADIENT OVER THE NW GULF AND SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL INCREASE TO 20 KT TUE THROUGH THU. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN N OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...STRETCHING THROUGH THE SE AND INTO THE WESTERN N ATLC BY WED EVENING. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... LOOK FOR THE STRONGEST WINDS IN THE CARIBBEAN TO SHIFT FROM THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN W INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN TODAY THROUGH TUE AS HIGH PRES BUILDS FARTHER W BEHIND THE COLD FRONT PASSING OFF THE E COAST AND SW N ATLC ZONE AND THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 75W MAKES ITS WAY W THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN. A SLOW MOVING TROUGH JUST E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES FROM 13N TO 21N IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NW INTO THE GREATER ANTILLES AND BAHAMAS OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD. CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH MAY MAKE IT MORE CHALLENGING TO TRACK THE TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY ALONG 51W S OF 16N AS IT TRACKS INTO THE E CARIBBEAN. THIS TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TROUGH THE TROPICAL N ATLC ZONE LATER TODAY AND MON AND PASS INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN BY TUE. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 33W S OF 16N WILL MOVE INTO THE TROPICAL N ATLC ZONE BY TUE. THIS WAVE HAS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 360 NM W OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 09N TO 14N AND THE 0004 UTC ASCAT PASS SHOWS WINDS IN THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE WAVE. THE WAVE LIES IN THE REAR RIGHT QUADRANT OF A 40 KT WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER JET. WHILE THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE CURRENTLY NEAR THE WAVE SHOULD DIMINISH SOME AS THE JET LIFTS NORTHWARD...THE WAVE WILL STILL REMAIN UNDER AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING W FROM A WESTWARD MIGRATING ANTICYCLONE CURRENTLY NEAR THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. SW N ATLC... THE BROAD DEEP LAYER TROUGH OVER THE E COAST AND WESTERN N ATLC WILL SLOWLY CARRY A SURFACE COLD FRONT TOWARD NW WATERS TODAY. THE FRONT SHOULD ENTER THE AREA WITH LITTLE FANFARE. A MOISTURE MAXIMUM IS LIFTING NORTH OF THE AREA AT THIS TIME ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH...TAKING THE BULK OF THE CONVECTION WITH IT. STRONGEST WINDS TODAY WILL REMAIN CLOSER TO THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH E OF THE COLD FRONT WHERE THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SURFACE TROUGHING AND RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC IS STRONGEST. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE OVER N WATERS OVERNIGHT MON NIGHT AND THE LOW ANCHORING THE WARM FRONT OVER THE SE U.S. WILL SHIFT NE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST AND SLOWLY CARRY A COLD FRONT AND A REINFORCING PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD TUE-THU. SW WINDS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL INCREASE TO 20 KT OVER FAR NW WATERS TUE EVE AS A RESULT AND WILL SHIFT E ACROSS FORECAST WATERS AS THE FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE. WARNINGS... ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE $$ FORECASTER SCHAUER CLARK