000
AGXX40 KNHC 021834
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
230 PM EDT FRI OCT 02 2009

UPPER LEVELS...
TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE ATLANTIC AREA TO ACROSS 
WEST CENTRAL CUBA TO JUST OFFSHORE THE HONDURAS NICARAGUA BORDER 
WILL REMAIN STATIONARY WHILE WEAKENING. THE TROUGH WILL BECOME 
DIFFUSE SATURDAY. A STRONG MIDDLE LATITUDE SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE 
ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES THROUGH SUNDAY WITH MODERATE 
WESTERLIES OVER THE NORTHERN GULF THROUGH SUNDAY AND THE 
NORTHERN PART OF THE ATLANTIC AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY AND BY 
TUESDAY THE NORTHEAST PART OF THE ATLANTIC AREA AND MOVING EAST 
OF 60W WEDNESDAY.

A RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA ALONG 22N AS THE TROUGH 
DISSIPATES AND EXPAND NORTHWARD IN THE WAKE OF THE MIDDLE 
LATITUDE SHORTWAVE. THE RIDGE WILL COVER MOST OF THE OFFSHORE 
AREA BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

SURFACE...
THE SURFACE PATTERN EVOLUTION WILL BE SIMILAR TO THE UPPER 
PATTERN EVOLUTION. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE WEAK OVER MOST 
OF THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE THE 
TRADE WINDS IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH LATE SUNDAY 
THEN THESE WINDS WILL BECOME LESS THAN NORMAL MONDAY THROUGH 
WEDNESDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS OF UP TO 20 KNOTS WILL BE EAST OF A 
TROUGH THAT FORMS NEAR 70W OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC IN ADVANCE 
OF THE MIDDLE LATITUDE SHORTWAVE BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT AND 
CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WHEN THE TROUGH MOVES NORTH 
AND EAST OF THE AREA. RETURN FLOW IN THE WESTERN GULF WILL 
APPROACH 20 KT SATURDAY NIGHT AND LAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. 
OTHERWISE THE WINDS WILL BE 15 KNOTS OR LESS.

WARNINGS...

ATLC...
.NONE.

CARIBBEAN...
.NONE.

GULF OF MEXICO...
.NONE

$$
FORECASTER LL