000 AGXX40 KNHC 291756 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 PM EDT TUE SEP 29 2009 GULF OF MEXICO... A COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...HAVING REACHED A POSITION ALONG 28N BY 12Z. SEVERAL BUOYS ALONG WITH LAND BASED STATIONS AND SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWED NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT REACHING 20 KT...MOSTLY CLOSE TO THE COASTLINE. CURRENT OBSERVATIONS INDICATE MAINLY 15 KT OR LESS. A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EVIDENT ALONG THE FRONT MAINLY W OF 85W. THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO STALL OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN GULF TOMORROW...EXTENDING FROM S FLORIDA TO S TEXAS BY EARLY WED. THE FRONT CONTINUE SLOWLY S THROUGH THE EASTERN GULF AND FLORIDA INTO THU...STALLING AND BECOMING DIFFUSE OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA THU INTO FRI. A SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS MAINLY THE EASTERN GULF THU INTO FRI. SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER THE WESTERN GULF WILL INCREASE OVER THE NW GULF FROM LATE THU INTO FRI AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT PUSHES SE THROUGH TEXAS. THE AREA OF FRESH SW WINDS WILL SHIFT EAST ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST FRI INTO SAT AS THE SECOND FRONT MOVES OFF THE TEXAS COAST. WINDS DIMINISH SAT AS THE FRONT STALLS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF AND DISSIPATES SUNDAY. SE RETURN FLOW INCREASES OVER THE TEXAS COAST BY SUN AFTERNOON. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W... FRESH TRADE WINDS PERSIST OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TODAY...WITH SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWING EVIDENCE OF CONTINUED 25 KT WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. THE PERSISTENT FRESH EAST WINDS ARE ALLOWING SWELL TO BUILD IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN. BUOY 42058 REPORTED SEAS REACHING 8 FT IN E SWELL...AND WW3 INDICATES COMBINED SEA HEIGHTS TO 10 FT ARE POSSIBLE FURTHER SOUTH NEAR THE COLOMBIAN COAST WHERE THE 25 KT WINDS HAVE PERSISTED. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK. SW ATLC WATERS S OF 31N W OF 55W... A WEAK COLD FRONT FROM 31N78W TO NE FLORIDA WILL SHIFT SE AND OVERTAKE A DISSIPATING FRONT EXTENDING FROM 31N70W TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS BY EARLY WED. SCATTEROMETER DATA AND REPORTS FROM BUOY 41047 SHOW SEPARATE BANDS OF 15 TO 20 KT WINDS OUT OF THE SW AHEAD OF EACH OF THIS FRONTS...SHIFTING E WITH THE FRONT. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS WESTERN FRONT OVERTAKES THE WEAKENING ORIGINAL FRONT. THE MERGED FRONT WILL REACH FROM 30N65W TO S FLORIDA BY EARLY THU...THEN WEAKEN AS IT SHIFTS EAST BEFORE DISSIPATING EAST OF THE BAHAMAS BY EARLY FRI. A WEAK RIDGE WILL BUILD FROM BERMUDA TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS FRI AND SAT. TRADE WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE WATERS S OF 25N THIS WEEKEND. ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE $$ FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN