000 AGXX40 KNHC 271715 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 115 PM EDT SUN SEP 27 2009 GULF OF MEXICO... SURFACE HIGH PRES EXTENDS FROM S FLORIDA TO S TEXAS. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH...THE REMNANT OF A STATIONARY FRONT ALONG THE MEXICAN COAST AND THE NORTHERN EXTENSION OF A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC...REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE FAR SW GULF OF MEXICO. A QUIKSCAT PASS FROM 12Z ALONG WITH REPORTS FROM BUOY 42055 INDICATE THE FRESH TO STRONG WINDS EVIDENT THERE YESTERDAY HAVE DIMINISHED TO 10 TO 15 KT. THE TROUGH WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH MON. ANOTHER WEAK TROUGH IS EVIDENT OVER THE NE GULF. THIS FEATURE WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH EARLY MON AS IT SHIFTS SE THROUGH FLORIDA...AHEAD OF COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH TONIGHT AND INTO THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS TOMORROW...REACHING A POSITION FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AREA TO SOUTH TEXAS BY TUE MORNING...AND FROM S FLORIDA TO S TEXAS BY WED MORNING. THE HIGH PRES WILL MAINTAIN GENERALLY LIGHT FLOW ACROSS THE GULF THROUGH MON...THEN SHIFT S AND WEAKEN. MODERATE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT OVER MAINLY THE NE GULF TUE AND WED. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W... FRESH TO STRONG TRADES PERSIST OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THIS MORNING AS EVIDENCED BY BUOY REPORTS AND SCATTEROMETER DATA. DATA SHOW ONLY MODERATE TRADES OVER THE FAR EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND THE TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W. THIS WILL INCREASE STARTING LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT AS HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA BUILDS. THE PERSISTENT STRONG EAST WINDS THROUGH TUE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WILL ALLOW E SWELL TO BUILD TO 10 FT OVER SW CARIBBEAN N OF COLOMBIA. BY MIDWEEK...A COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE ATLC WATERS N OF THE BAHAMAS. THIS WILL WEAKEN THE RIDGE ALLOWING WINDS TO DIMINISH IN ALL BUT THE SOUTH CENTRAL BASIN. SW ATLC WATERS S OF 31N W OF 55W... A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL ATLC SHIFTED S OF BERMUDA YESTERDAY AND REACHED AS FAR S AS THE 28N E OF 65W THIS MORNING. A QUIKSCAT PASS FROM 10Z SHOWED FRESH NE TO E FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT. THE SUPPORTING SHORT WAVE TROUGH ALOFT IS PUSHING FURTHER EAST...ALLOWING THE FRONT TO LIFT OUT. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH S OF THE FRONT BARELY SHOWS UP IN THE DATA...AND WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE LATER TODAY. ANOTHER WEAK TROUGH WILL MOVE OFF THE N FLORIDA COAST TODAY. SW WINDS N OF THE BAHAMAS E OF N FLORIDA WILL INCREASE WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 7 FT. THIS TROUGH WEAKENS AND LIFTS OUT ALONG WITH THE UPPER SUPPORT THROUGH MON...AHEAD OF A MORE SUBSTANTIAL IMPULSE CUTTING ACROSS THE SE UNITED STATES. THIS COLD FRONT MOVES OFF THE N FLORIDA COAST BY EARLY TUE...REACHING A POSITION FROM 31N72W TO CENTRAL FLORIDA BY EARLY WED...AND FROM 31N66W TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS BY EARLY THU. FURTHER SOUTH...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRES REMAINS IN PLACE ALONG ROUGHLY 24N. ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE $$ FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN