000 AGXX40 KNHC 251832 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 230 PM EDT FRI SEP 25 2009 GULF OF MEXICO... SCATTEROMETER DATA FROM EARLIER THIS MORNING INDICATED FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WERE STILL BLOWING ALONG MEXICAN COAST MAINLY S OF VERACRUZ...WEST OF A STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN LOUISIANA TO THE CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE. HIGH PRES SETTLES OVER THE NORTHERN GULF BY LATE SAT...ALLOWING LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVER THE N CENTRAL GULF. A WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS MON NIGHT...BEFORE STALLING OVER THE NORTH GULF TUE AND DISSIPATING OVER WED. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL ATLC W OF 55W... BUOYS AND SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOW MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES PERSISTING OVER MAINLY THE SOUTH CENTRAL BASIN. AN 11Z QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWED 25 KT WINDS OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. REPORTS FROM BUOY 42058 SHOWED COMBINED SEA HEIGHTS REACHING 8 FT IN 20 KT EAST FLOW. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRES NE OF THE AREA IN THE CENTRAL ATLC WILL BUILD THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND THE TROPICAL ATLC WATERS W OF 55W. THERE WAS SOME SCANT EVIDENCE OF A TROPICAL WAVE WAS JUST EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES THIS MORNING...AND THIS WOULD HELP ENHANCE TRADE FLOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE HIGH PRES TO THE NORTH BUILDS. SW N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W... A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 26N67W TO THE NE TOWARD BERMUDA. THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER TROUGH THAT IS LIFTING OUT TO THE NE. THE SURFACE FEATURE WILL SHIFT S THROUGH TONIGHT...AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE SOUTH OF BERMUDA OVERNIGHT...REACHING SOUTH OF 31N BY EARLY SAT...BEFORE STALLING LATER IN THE DAY. A QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWED A SMALL AREA OF 20 KT WINDS TO THE EAST OF THE TROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING. JUDGING BY LIGHT NORTHERLY REPORTS FROM BUOY 41047...THIS AREA OF FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS MAY BE DIMINISHING ALREADY OR AT LEAST SHIFTING SLIGHTLY MORE TO THE EAST. EXPECT FRESH NE WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH BERMUDA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...DIMINISHING BY SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRES BUILDS ALONG ROUGHLY 24N SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...AS A DEEP LAYER TROUGH DIGS THROUGH THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS WILL TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS BETWEEN N FLORIDA AND BERMUDA...ALLOWING SW WINDS TO INCREASE TO 20 KT MON INTO TUE. THESE WINDS DIMINISH AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT EMERGES OFF THE CAROLINA COAST LATE TUE...AND PUSHES INTO THE WATERS OFF N FLORIDA AND N OF THE BAHAMAS TUE NIGHT INTO WED. THE FRONT WILL REACH A POSITION FROM 31N68W TO CENTRAL FLORIDA BY LATE WED. ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE $$ FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN