000
AGXX40 KNHC 171941
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
330 PM EDT THU SEP 17 2009

GULF OF MEXICO...
A DEEP LAYER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MEANDER OVER THE 
ARK-LA-TEX. AN ASSOCIATED LEADING BOUNDARY HAS LOST ITS 
BAROCLINICITY FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE SW GULF. A COLD 
FRONT IS SITUATED ABOUT 200 NM W OF THE TROUGH FROM SE LOUISIANA 
TO THE TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER. WINDS ARE LESS THAN 20 KT ACROSS THE 
ENTIRE REGION AT THE MOMENT...BUT COULD GUST TO 20 KT IN TSTMS 
ALONG THE BOUNDARIES. THE LOW IS DRIFTING SOUTH AND GLOBAL 
MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THIS MOTION WILL CONTINUE FOR THE 
NEXT 12 HOURS. THIS WILL CAUSE THE COLD FRONT TO STALL AND WINDS 
TO INCREASE TO NEAR 20 KT ON BOTH SIDES OF THE BOUNDARY. BY 
FRI...THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND DRIFT NE. 
CONSEQUENTLY...THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN AND WINDS WILL GRADUALLY  
SLACKEN. THE FRONT/TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE LATE SAT WITH 
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING WEST ACROSS THE NORTH WATERS IN ITS WAKE.

CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL NORTH ATLANTIC...
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOW A SMALL AREA OF
15-20 KT EASTERLY TRADES OVER THE USUAL ENHANCED LOCATIONS...THE 
SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND THE GULF OF HONDURAS. WINDS REMAIN 
LIGHT ELSEWHERE DUE TO A TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. 
TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY FRI NIGHT AS THE 
WESTERN ATLANTIC TROUGH DISSIPATES AND REMAIN MODERATE TO FRESH 
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE REMNANT LOW OF FRED HAS OPENED INTO A 
TROUGH ALONG 62W FROM 22N-28N. THE ONLY EFFECT ON THE TROPICAL 
NORTH ATLANTIC ZONE IS ELEVATED SEAS...6-8 FT...IN E SWELL 
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LARGE SWATH OF ENHANCED TRADES EAST OF THE 
TROUGH.

SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLANTIC...
A QUASI-STATIONARY TROUGH EXTENDS FROM LOW PRESSURE N OF THE 
AREA SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH 31N72W TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. 
SOUTHERLY 20 KT WINDS EXIST WITHIN 300 NM E OF THE TROUGH N OF 
27N. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN TAKING THE LOW 
FARTHER NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA. HOWEVER...THE TRAILING 
TROUGH WILL LINGER ACROSS THE REGION FOR A COUPLE MORE DAYS... 
EXTENDING FROM 31N71W TO THE NW BAHAMAS BAHAMAS LATE 
TOMORROW...31N70W TO 28N71W SAT...AND DISSIPATE BY SAT NIGHT. 
WINDS ARE DECREASING AND SHOULD FALL BELOW 20 KT LATER TODAY. 
THE REMNANTS OF FRED HAVE OPENED INTO A TROUGH ALONG 62W. THIS 
WEAKENING TROUGH WILL MOVE N OF PUERTO RICO FRI MORNING...TO THE 
SE BAHAMAS SAT...AND INTO CENTRAL CUBA SUN. WINDS ARE EXPECTED 
TO BECOME LIGHT TO MODERATE BY THAT TIME.

ATLC...
.NONE.

CARIBBEAN...
.NONE.

GULF OF MEXICO...
.NONE

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI