000
AGXX40 KNHC 080713
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
313 AM EDT TUE SEP 08 2009

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA
AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

GULF OF MEXICO...
A WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND 
THE VICINITY IS RESULTING IN LIGHT WINDS ACROSS ALL ZONES... 
MAINLY OUT OF THE NE TO E. SHIPS AND BUOYS ARE GENERALLY 
REPORTING 1-2 FT SEAS...BUT BUOY 42055 IS SUGGESTING THAT SEAS 
MIGHT BE A FT OR TWO HIGHER OVER THE SW WATERS...ESPECIALLY IN 
SHOWERS/TSTMS. WINDS WILL LIKELY INCREASE OVER THE W WATERS LATE 
IN THE WEEK AND THIS WEEKEND AS A SFC TROUGH OR LOW DEVELOPS 
OVER THE NW ZONE. WHILE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT A 
TROUGH WILL DEVELOP...THERE IS SPREAD IN THE TIMING...PLACEMENT 
AND INTENSITY. FOR NOW...USING THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN AT DAYS 4 
AND 5...WHICH IS A MORE CONSERVATIVE FORECAST.

CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC...
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND QUIKSCAT DATA SHOW A SWATH OF 20-25 KT 
EASTERLY TRADES FROM 11N-15N BETWEEN 70W-77W WITH COMBINED SEAS 
ESTIMATED TO BE 6-9 FT. A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 57W...WHICH HAS 
WEAKENED SINCE YESTERDAY...IS ENHANCING NE TO E 15-20 KT WINDS 
ACROSS THE TROPICAL N ATLC N OF 18N. OTHERWISE...THE FLOW IS 
GENERALLY 10-15 KT ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO THE 
SE EAST OF THE WAVE S OF 15N...AS NOTED IN QUIKSCAT DATA. THIS 
TROPICAL WAVE IS FORECAST TO REACH THE LESSER ANTILLES THIS 
EVENING AND MOVE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WED THROUGH SAT. TROPICAL 
STORM FRED LOCATED ABOUT 250 MILES SSW OF THE SOUTHERN CAPE 
VERDE ISLANDS IS FORECAST TO REMAIN WELL E OF THE REGION.

SW N ATLC...
A TROUGH REMAINS QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE NW WATERS 
...CURRENTLY FROM A 1007 MB LOW NEAR THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST TO 
SOUTHEAST FLORIDA. A WELL-DEFINED WIND SHIFT REMAINS EVIDENT BUT 
MAGNITUDES ON BOTH SIDES ARE AROUND 10 KT S OF 31N. THIS FEATURE 
IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SHIFT E AND WEAKEN THROUGH MID TO LATE 
WEEK. THE FORECAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS APPEARS 
STRAIGHTFORWARD. SURFACE RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN EAST OF 
THE AREA AND TROUGHING EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE NW CORNER OF 
THE ZONE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR NEARLY UNIFORM SE-S 10-15 KT FLOW 
N OF 25N...EXCEPT NE W OF THE TROUGH...AND SIMILAR MAGNITUDE 
E-SE WINDS S OF 25N.   
     
WARNINGS
ATLC...
.NONE.

CARIBBEAN...
.NONE.

GULF OF MEXICO...
.NONE

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI