000 AGXX40 KNHC 070620 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 220 AM EDT MON SEP 07 2009 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... A WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE VICINITY IS RESULTING IN LIGHT WINDS ACROSS ALL ZONES. SHIPS AND BUOYS ARE MAINLY REPORTING 1-2 FT SEAS...BUT BUOY 42055 IS SUGGESTING THAT SEAS MIGHT BE A FT OR TWO HIGHER OVER THE SW WATERS...ESPECIALLY IN TSTMS. A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN BAHAMAS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS LATE TODAY AND THEN DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL WATERS WED. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO SHIFT SE BEHIND THE TROUGH BUT REMAIN 10 KT OR LESS. THE STRONGEST WINDS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD IS EXPECTED NEAR THE YUCATAN COAST...WHERE THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND LOCAL EFFECTS WILL GENERATE NE 15 KT WINDS DURING THE EVENING HOURS. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... RELATIVELY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ARE PRESENT ACROSS THE AREA. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND QUIKSCAT DATA SHOW A SWATH OF 20 KT EASTERLY TRADES FROM 11N-16N BETWEEN 68W-76W WITH COMBINED SEAS ESTIMATED TO BE 6-9 FT. GENERALLY 10-15 KT NE TO E WINDS ARE LOCATED ELSEWHERE. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR 15N49W... ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE...WILL BE MOVING TOWARD THE TROPICAL N ATLC ZONE MON NIGHT OR EARLY TUE. HOWEVER...GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT IN SHOWING THE SYSTEM WEAKENING INTO AN OPEN WAVE AS IT APPROACHES...LIKELY DUE TO STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR. THERE ARE TWO OTHER TROPICAL WAVES OVER THE CENTRAL/EAST ATLC. THE WAVE OVER THE FAR EASTERN ATLC IS SHOWING SIGNS OF DEVELOPING. HOWEVER...THE ACTIVE PORTION OF BOTH OF THESE SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN EAST OF THIS AREA. SW N ATLC... A FEW WEAK TROUGHS ARE ANALYZED ACROSS THE AREA. ONE OF THESE HAS BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE FAR NW WATERS FOR A FEW DAYS...CURRENTLY FROM A 1014 MB LOW NEAR 32N78W TO CENTRAL FLORIDA. A WELL-DEFINED WIND SHIFT REMAINS EVIDENT BUT MAGNITUDES ON BOTH SIDES ARE AROUND 10 KT. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SHIFT E THROUGH MID TO LATE WEEK. ANOTHER TROUGH IS OVER THE NW BAHAMAS AND SHOULD MOVE INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS LATER TODAY. A THIRD TROUGH IS OVER THE SE BAHAMAS... WITH LITTLE EFFECTS EVIDENT ON THE SFC WIND FIELD. THE FORECAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS APPEARS STRAIGHTFORWARD. SURFACE RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN EAST OF THE AREA AND TROUGHING EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE NW CORNER OF THE ZONE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR NEARLY UNIFORM SE-S 10-15 KT FLOW N OF 25N AND SIMILAR MAGNITUDE E-SE WINDS S OF 25N. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE W OF THE FIRST TROUGH MENTIONED...WHERE LIGHT NE FLOW IS FORECAST. WARNINGS ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI