000 AGXX40 KNHC 250732 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 330 AM EDT TUE AUG 25 2009 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... WEAK STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA EXTEND TO 22N90W AND INTO BAY OF CAMPECHE PRODUCING SCATTERED TSTMS WITHIN 240 NM E OF BOUNDARY. HIGH PRES ALONG N COAST OF GULF PERSIST OVER REMAINDER OF BASIN WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE NE TO E BREEZE AND SLIGHT SEAS...EXCEPT A MODERATE SE FLOW W OF 96W. WITH WEAKENED ATLC RIDGE...HIGH PRES OVER GULF SHOULD REMAIN UNDAUNTED THROUGH FRI...WHEN IT SHOULD REBUILD ACROSS N GULF BUT WITH CONTINUED MILD WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS. CARIBBEAN AND THE TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W... LOW PRES OVER SW CARIBBEAN MOVING ALONG WITH TROPICAL WAVE NOW APPROACHING PANAMA-COSTA RICA BORDER WITH INCREASED LOW LEVEL CONVERGING WINDS ALONG COSTA RICA AND NICARAGUA WITH NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION...AND ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAIN... SPREADING W OVER LAND AREAS. PRES GRADIENT FLATTENS OVER CARIBBEAN TODAY AND WED DIMINISHING WINDS ACROSS ENTIRE BASIN BUT ATLC RIDGE START REBUILDING WED NIGHT AND THU...AND SECOND TROPICAL WAVE CROSSES CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...INCREASING TRADES AS NEW LOW PRES FORMS OVER COLOMBIA WITH STRONGER WINDS AND HIGHER SEAS ALONG ITS COAST. SW N ATLC... CREST OF COMPLEX TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 64W S OF 24N INTERACTING WITH DIFFLUENT FLOW UNDER CYCLONIC VORTEX ALOFT PRODUCING NUMEROUS STRONG TSTMS. CREST EXPECTED TO BREAK OFF MAIN WAVE AXIS AND HEAD NW AROUND CENTRAL ATLC RIDGE PERIPHERY PRODUCING GALE FORCE WINDS MAINLY IN NE QUADRANT. EUROPEAN AND NAM MODEL GUIDANCE NOW IN STEP WITH GFS SOLUTION BRINGING GALE CENTER NW TO 31N WHERE SHIFT TO NE PULLS CENTER AWAY FROM CONUS. NWW3 AND UKMET BRING THE POSSIBILITY OF VERY HIGH SEAS...UP TO 25 FT...IN AREAS OF GALE FORCE WINDS. POSSIBILITY OF TROPICAL ORGANIZATION EXIST...BUT NOT YET EXPECTED AS UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE REMAINS TOO CLOSE AND STRONG WINDS DO NOT SEEM TO WRAP AROUND CENTER. BY THU ATLC RIDGE SEEM TO REBUILD W ALONG 28N. REFER TO LATEST TWOAT FROM NHC ON THIS EVOLVING FEATURE...AS WELL AS HIGH SEAS FORECASTS FROM TAFB...MIAHSFAT2. WARNINGS ATLC... .GALE WARNING N OF 27N FROM 65W TO 73W... .GALE WARNING EXPECTED WED AND WED NIGHT WITHIN 120 NM NE OF 28N71W... CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE $$ FORECASTER WALLY BARNES