000 AGXX40 KNHC 241931 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 330 PM EDT MON AUG 24 2009 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM OHIO VALLEY SW INTO N CENTRAL GULF IS MAINTAINING LOW TO MID LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE OLD AND WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT PERSISTS FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA SW TO THE SW GULF...WITH WEAK HIGH ACROSS THE NW GULF PRODUCING MILD FLOW ACROSS MOST OF THE BASIN...AND SLIGHT SEAS. GFS CONTINUES TO UNDERFORECAST SMALL ZONES OF 15 KT WINDS AND 3 FT SEAS...BUT IS REASONABLE. LOOK FOR W PORTION OF BOUNDARY TO PERSIST ACROSS FAR W GULF AND MOVE INTO MEXICO/TEXAS COASTS NEXT 36 HOURS... WHILE THE ERN PORTION OF BOUNDARY EVENTUALLY DRIFTS BACK TO THE NW IN AN EVEN WEAKER FORM. WEAK RIDGE TO BUILD BACK ACROSS N GULF BY END OF WEEK BUT WITH CONTINUED MILD WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS. CARIBBEAN AND THE TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W... TROPICAL WAVE RACING 20-24 KT AND APPEARS TO HAVE PULLED COLOMBIAN LOW WITH IT...WITH BANDING OF SQUALLS AND TSTMS OCCURRING ACROSS ALL BUT SE SEMICIRCLE. THIS SYSTEM MAY BECOME NEXT EPAC TROPICAL CYCLONE. ASSOCIATED WIND SURGE WAS PRODUCING BROAD AREA OF 20-25 KT WINDS WITH AND BEHIND THE WAVE TO ABOUT 69-70W. DEEP CNVTN OCCURRING S OF 15N WITH THIS WAVE WITH SAL DAMMED UP ALONG THE N OF THIS OVER AND JUST AHEAD OF THE WAVE. SEAS HAVE RESPONDED AND ARE BUILDING 8-10 FT WITH WIND FIELD...SLIDING W INTO THE W CENTRAL AND WRN CARIB...WITH PEAK SEAS NOT OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA...BUT FARTHER N ALONG 13-14N. THIS WIND/WAVE FILED WILL SHIFT W WITH THE WAVE DURING THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS...THEN WEAKENED AND LEAVE A MODERATE TO FRESH ELY FLOW ACROSS ALL BUT THE FAR ERN CARIB...AFTER WAVE MOVES INTO CENTRAL AMERICA TUE-TUE NIGHT. A WEAKENED TRADE WIND FLOW IS THEN EXPECTED NEXT FEW DAYS AS COMPLEX TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS E/NE CARIB LIFTS WNW WITH WEAK TROUGHING TO ITS SOUTH LESSENING THE GRADIENT FLOW ACROSS THE E AND THEN CENTRAL CARIB...AND PROVIDES A SELY COMPONENT. SW N ATLC... COMPLEX TROPICAL WAVE ENTERING E/NE CARIB ATTM CONTINUES TO INTERACT FAVORABLY WITH UPPER LOW TO ITS NW...AND IS VENTING NUMEROUS DEEP CNVTN IN ANTICYCLONIC FLOW OVERHEAD OF THE WAVE. TWO VORT CENTERS ACCOMPANY THIS WAVE...ONE POSITIVELY TILTED AND ELONGATED...AND IN THE LEAD ALONG 60/62W...THE FORMER N VORT...WHILE THE SRN AND BAROTROPIC VORT WAS CENTERED NEAR 18N57W. THIS COMPLEX IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WNW NEXT FEW DAYS AND OFFERS SOME POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL CYCLOGENESIS. THE INCREASING GRADIENT TO THE NE OF THE SRN VORT OR TRAILING PORTION IS LIKELY TO YIELD GALE FORCE WINDS BEGINNING 06-12Z TUE...AND WE HAVE ISSUED A GALE WARNING STARTING 12Z TUE FOR A 24 HOUR PERIOD...AND THEN WAITING TO SEE WHAT HAPPENS FURTHER WITH THIS. I PREFER THE ECMWF AND UKMET SOLUTIONS OF A MORE WNW MOTION OF THE WAVE AND ASSOCIATED VORT FIELD...WITH THIS TRAJECTORY CLEARING THE ISLANDS AND COASTAL WATERS OF THE NE CARIBBEAN AND MOVING TOWARD THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...AS THE GFS APPEARS TO BE OVER DOING THE DEPTH OF THE UPPER LOW REFLECTION...INDUCING A DECIDED SSE-NNW STEERING FLOW E OF 70W NEXT 36-48 HOURS...AND LIFTS THIS VORT CENTER QUICKLY NW THEN N AND OUT OF THE AREA AFTER 48 HOURS. THUS THE GFS WIND FIELD AND WWIII WAVE FIELD ARE DISPLACED 5-8 DEGREES TO FAR N AND NE AFTER 24 HOURS...AND HAVE MADE MANUAL ADJUSTMENTS TO OUR 48 AND 72 HOURS PROGS. E TO SE WINDS OF 30 KTS AND HIGHER WILL GENERATE 10-14 FT SEAS AND POSSIBLY HIGHER WITHIN 120 NM NE OF ANY LLVL LOW THAT DEVELOPS ALONG THIS WAVE...OR FRACTURED TROUGH...AS IT SHIFTS WNW NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS TO HAVE SIGNIFICANT REPERCUSSIONS ON WIND AND WAVE FORECASTS TO THE W AND NW OF THIS FEATURE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...NOT TO MENTION TROPICAL CYCLONE IMPLICATIONS. REFER TO LATEST TWOAT FROM NHC ON THIS EVOLVING FEATURE...AS WELL AS HIGH SEAS FORECASTS FROM TAFB...MIAHSFAT2. WARNINGS ATLC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE $$ FORECASTER STRIPLING