000 AGXX40 KNHC 132116 AAA MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION...UPDATED NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 515 PM EDT THU AUG 13 2009 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... WINDS ARE GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE ACROSS THE REGION. THE ASSOCIATED WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT IS BEING INDUCED BY A SFC TROUGH OVER THE NE PORTION AND THE N PORTION OF A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. BUOYS ARE REPORTING MAINLY 1-2 FT COMBINED SEAS ACROSS THE AREA. MAIN FEATURE OF CONCERN FOR THE FORECAST IS THE N PORTION OF A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY NEAR 70W. GFS...WHICH APPEARS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS WAVE...MOVES IT TO S FLORIDA FRI NIGHT/EARLY SAT AND THEN FRACTURES THE N PORTION AND MOVES IT NW ACROSS THE GULF THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY BRING AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND SQUALLS TO THE REGION AND INCREASE E TO SE WINDS TO 20-25 KT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 7 FT E OF THE TROUGH AXIS...HIGHEST IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. CARIBBEAN... SFC OBSERVATIONS AND QUIKSCAT DATA REVEAL 20-25 KT NE/E TRADES IN THE USUAL TOPOGRAPHICALLY ENHANCED ZONE...FROM 11N-13N BETWEEN 73W-77W...AND E TO SE 20-25 KT OVER THE FAR NE PORTION E OF A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 68W/69W. THIS WAVE WILL SPREAD THE 20-25 KT SWATH WESTWARD AS IT TRACKS TO NEAR 72W FRI MORNING...78W SAT MORNING...AND OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS SUN MORNING. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 8-11 FT OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN E OF THE WAVE AXIS FRI NIGHT AND SAT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE HIGHER IN SQUALLS. THE WAVE EXITS THE W CARIBBEAN LATE SUN...ALLOWING WINDS AND SEAS TO DIMINISH. WINDS/SEAS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE AGAIN MON OVER THE FAR NE WATERS DUE TO THE APPROACH OF THE REMNANT LOW...FORMERLY TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO. TROPICAL N ATLC...UPDATED ELY 20-25 KT FLOW IS STILL OCCURRING OVER THE NW PORTION OF THE AREA ENHANCED BY THE TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THESE WINDS WILL DECREASE TO 15-20 KT OR LESS TONIGHT THROUGH SAT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE AGAIN SUN AS TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO MOVES ACROSS THE N HALF OF THE ZONE. THE 2100 UTC NHC OFFICIAL ADVISORY HAS DOWNGRADED TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO TO A REMNANT LOW WELL E OF THE AREA NEAR 14.2N 38.3W WITH WINDS OF 25 KT GUSTS TO 35 KT. THE FORECAST TRACKS THE REMNANT LOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN TROPICAL N ATLC BEGINNING SUN EVENING THROUGH LATE MON WITH THESE SAME MAXIMUM WIND SPEEDS. ACCORDINGLY...HEADLINES WERE DROPPED FOR THE ZONE. HOWEVER...WINDS AND SEAS ARE STILL FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 10 FT OR SO ACROSS THE N HALF WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF MORE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS IN SQUALLS. SW N ATLC...UPDATED AN E TO W RIDGE EXTENDING W FROM A HIGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 29N59W WILL SHIFT JUST N OF THE AREA THIS WEEKEND. THE NORTHERN PORTION OF A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 70W IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE BAHAMAS THROUGH FRI REACHING S FLORIDA SAT. AVAILABLE SFC/SCAT DATA SHOW E-SE 20-25 KT WINDS AND 6-9 FT SEAS BEHIND THE WAVE. BASICALLY...EXTRAPOLATING THESE CONDITIONS WWD IN THE FORECAST...IN AGREEMENT WITH GFS/WW3. TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO WAS DOWNGRADED TO A REMNANT LOW AT 2100 UTC THIS AFTERNOON. THE FUTURE TRACK OF THE LOW PLACES IT INTO THE SE PORTION OF THE AREA ON TUE...WITH THE POSSIBILITY THAT IT COULD DEGENERATE FURTHER INTO TO A TROPICAL WAVE IF IT DOES NOT HOLD TOGETHER. NEVERTHELESS...WINDS AND SEAS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE ACROSS THE SE PORTION MON AND POSSIBLY THE FAR S CENTRAL WATERS TUE. WARNINGS ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/AGUIRRE