000 AGXX40 KNHC 270622 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 230 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2009 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... AN ELONGATED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE GULF REGION AND INTO CENTRAL MEXICO. AN UPPER-LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN EXTENDING A RIDGE OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE SE PORTION OF THE GULF. DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN THESE TWO UPPER-LEVEL FEATURES CONTINUES TO SUPPORT SOME SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY OVER THE CENTRAL GULF AND OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH THROUGH TODAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH WEAKENS AND LIFTS OUT...AND A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE WESTERN ATLC ALONG 28N TO TEXAS WITH A WEAK 1019 MB SFC HIGH CENTERED IN THE MIDDLE OF THE GULF. OCCASIONALLY 20 KT WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE AND ALONG THE YUCATAN COAST IN THE EVENING. A TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN LOW PRES FORMING OVER WEST TEXAS AND THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE GULF WILL ALLOW SE RETURN FLOW OVER THE NW GULF TO INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KT THROUGH MID WEEK WITH SEAS UP TO 6 FT. OTHERWISE LIGHT TO MODERATE FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THU ACROSS THE GULF DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE. CARIBBEAN... A QUIKSCAT PASS FROM AROUND 2300Z SHOWED AN AREA OF 25 TO 30 KT OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. STRONG WINDS WILL PERSIST OVER THIS REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK BETWEEN HIGH PRES TO THE NORTH...DEEPENING LOW PRES OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND COLOMBIA...AND AS A PAIR OF TROPICAL WAVES MIGRATE THROUGH THE BASIN. STRONG TRADES WILL ALSO DEVELOP OVER THE NE AND N CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AS WELL BY STARTING TUE AS HIGH PRES BUILDS N OF THE AREA. SEAS UP TO 13 FT WILL PERSIST OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN BY THE COLOMBIAN COAST...AND WILL BUILD TO 14 FT PER NWW3 OVER THE NE AND N CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BY WED IN E SWELL. OCCASIONALLY 20 KT WINDS CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS MAINLY AROUND 0000Z INCREASING TO 25 KT THU EVENING AS HIGH PRES STRENGTHENS N OF AREA. WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO SLIGHTLY DIMINISH ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA ON FRI. ATLANTIC S OF 31N W OF 55W... A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE N CENTRAL ATLC TO JUST SOUTH OF BERMUDA...THROUGH THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. WINDS ARE GENERALLY 10 TO 15 KT AROUND THE SURFACE RIDGE... ALTHOUGH 20 KT E FLOW IS NOTED N OF HISPANIOLA PER A QSCAT PASS. AN INCREASE IN WINDS TO 25 KT AND SEAS TO 9 FT IS EXPECTED S OF 22N THROUGH MIDWEEK AS HIGH PRES BUILDS NEAR BERMUDA WITH THE RIDGE EXTENDING ALONG 28N/29N. WARNINGS ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. $$ FORECASTER GR