000
AGXX40 KNHC 061757
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT MON JUL 06 2009

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA 
AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

UPPER LEVELS...
LARGE AMPLITUDE TROUGH DROP FROM 31N63W TO WRN CUBA THEN TO 
CYCLONIC VORTEX AT 19N83W IN NW CARIBBEAN.  BROAD RIDGE ALOFT 
OVER SOUTH AMERICA COMBINES WITH TROUGH TO PRODUCE AREA OF 
MODERATE TO STRONG DIFFLUENCE IN VICINITY OF MONA PASSAGE.  
TROPICAL WAVE NOW ALONG 71W COMPOUNDS SCENARIO BY CONTRIBUTING 
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND GOOD MECHANICAL UPLIFT AT LOWER 
LEVELS RESULTING IN NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION OVER 
LARGE AREA COVERING EASTERN HISPANIOLA...PUERTO RICO AND THE 
VIRGIN ISLANDS.  ISLANDS OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS ADD MORE COMPLEXITY 
TO A POTENTIAL PRECIPITATION EVENT.  EVENT NOT EXPECTED TO BE 
LONG LASTING AS UPPER TROUGH EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ITS EASTWARD 
TRACK WHILE SOUTH AMERICA RIDGE REMAINS STATIONARY AND TROPICAL 
WAVE MOVES W EFFECTIVELY DECOUPLING ALL ELEMENTS WITHIN NEXT 24 
HR.   

UPSTREAM RIDGE WITH ANTICYCLONE NEAR TEXAS BIG BEND BRING STEADY 
FLOW OF DRY AIR MASS ALOFT OVER GULF OF MEXICO WHILE FLOW 
BECOMES MORE ZONAL OVER GULF COAST STATES. 

SURFACE...
HIGH PRES 1024 MB OVER CENTRAL ATLC HAS RIDGE ALONG 28N KEEPING 
A STEADY FLOW ACROSS N ATLC OF LIGHT BACKING WINDS.  ONLY 
EXCEPTION IS INCREASING W-SW WIND FLOW AHEAD OF STRING OF LOW 
PRES CENTERS MOVING E JUST N OF BASIN.  FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE 
EXPECTED N OF 29N THROUGH WED.   

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 71W SPARK ABOVE NORMAL TRADE WINDS AS IT 
MOVES W AT 20 KT.  WINDS AND ASSOCIATED SEAS EXPECTED TO LOWER 
BY WED IN EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND BY FRI IN WESTERN HALF. 

WARNINGS

ATLC...
.NONE. 

CARIBBEAN...
.NONE.

GULF OF MEXICO...
.NONE.

FORECASTER WALLY BARNES. TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER.