000 AGXX40 KNHC 271706 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 100 PM EDT SAT JUN 27 2009 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO...AN E TO W RIDGE EXTENDING FROM SW FL TO THE TX COAST WILL SPLIT LATE TONIGHT AS THE NORTHERN EXTENSION OF A TROPICAL WAVE SEPARATES FROM ITS PARENT WAVE. THE TROUGH WILL DRIFT N THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND S CENTRAL GULF WATERS TONIGHT AND LIE UNDER THE FAVORABLE DIFFLUENCE E OF AN UPPER TROUGH AND CUT OFF CYCLONE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. BASICALLY EXPECTING THE TROUGH TO BEGIN DRIFTING E SUN AND SUN NIGHT WITH A LOW PRES DEVELOPING ALONG THE TROUGH. THE LOW HAS THE POSSIBILITY OF STRENGTHENING TO A TROPICAL CYCLONE. PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE DEVELOPMENT...STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THIS LOW AND LATEST GUIDANCE MUCH LESS AGGRESSIVE SO TONED DOWN THIS MORNINGS TEXT PACKAGE AND TONING DOWN GRAPHICAL PACKAGE IN PROGRESS. SW ATLC... AN E TO W RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE AREA ALONG 25N. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE RIDGE WILL MEANDER BETWEEN 24N AND 26N THROUGH THE PERIOD WHILE A SERIES OF WEAK COLD FRONTS...OR TROUGHS...WILL SWEEP E THROUGH THE NORTHERN WATERS BUT ONLY ACCOMPANIED BY A SLIGHT SW TO WSW WIND SHIFT. THE ASSOCIATED GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN N OF 28N WITH SLY WINDS INCREASING TO 20 TO 25 KT AND CONTINUING THROUGH WED. LATEST GUIDANCE NOT HANGING ONTO THE SURFACE LOW PRES IN THE GULF OF MEXICO AND MOVING ACROSS FL INTO W N ATLC...AS WAS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST...SO HAVE DROPPED MENTION FOR NOW. THE LARGEST IMPACT WOULD HAVE BEEN SW WINDS 20 TO 25 KT E SEMICIRCLE OF LOW...AND WE ARE GOING TO HAVE THOSE CONDITIONS EVERYWHERE N OF THE RIDGE ANYWAY. TROPICS INCLUDING CARIBBEAN...A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 76W SHOULD REACH ALONG 81W SUN AND MOVE THROUGH THEN GULF OF HONDURAS JUST AFTER SUNRISE MON. A THIRD WAVE CURRENTLY IN THE CENTRAL ATLC SHOULD REACH ALONG 55W MON AND ENTER THE E CARIBBEAN MIDDAY TUE REACHING ALONG 67W WED AND 72W THU. WARNINGS ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FORECASTER NELSON. TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER.