000 AGXX40 KNHC 240657 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 300 AM EDT WED JUN 24 2009 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. SW N ATLC... DEEP LAYER TROUGHING LIES OVER THE W ATLC WITH AN ASSOCIATED SFC FRONT/TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 31N69W TO THE NW BAHAMAS. S-SW 20-30 KT WINDS ARE OCCURRING TO THE E OF THE TROUGH TO 60W N OF 24N...DUE TO THE TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. NIGHT CHANNEL IR IMAGERY AND BUOY 41047 SUGGEST THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW ALONG THE TROUGH NEAR 28N72W. GFS...ECMWF...UKMET ALL APPEAR TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE CURRENT STATE AND ARE IN AGREEMENT IN SHOWING A SERIES OF WEAK LOWS DEVELOPING ALONG THE TROUGH AND QUICKLY MOVING NE THROUGH THU. A SHORT PERIOD OF GALE FORCE WINDS MAY OCCUR IF A WELL DEFINED FRONTAL WAVE DEVELOPS...BUT WILL MAINTAIN 20-30 KT DUE TO THE HIGH UNCERTAINTY OF THE LOCATION AND INTENSITY OF THESE SMALL SCALE FEATURES. SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE IN THE 8-12 FT RANGE OVER THE NE PART OF THE ZONE. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DECREASE BEGINNING THU AS THE TROUGH FLATTEN AND SHIFTS NE. RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE AREA FRI THROUGH SUN...DECREASING WINDS AND SEAS FURTHER. CARIBBEAN... TRADES ARE GENERALLY LIGHT ACROSS THE REGION DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC. HOWEVER...ELY WINDS ARE INCREASING OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN BEHIND A TROPICAL WAVE. ELY TRADES ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE FROM E-W OVER THE CARIBBEAN AS RIDGING BUILDS IN THE WAKE OF THE TROPICAL WAVE. ADVERTISING ELY 15-20 KT OVER MUCH OF THE AREA E OF 75W TODAY THROUGH THU...THEN INCREASING TO 20-25 KT FRI AND THIS WEEKEND. 00Z GFS IS MUCH LESS AGGRESSIVE THAN EARLIER RUNS IN SHOWING A TROUGH DEVELOP OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS FRI AND SAT. THIS SOLUTION IS NOW IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF AND UKMET...SO FEEL MORE CONFIDENT IN BUMPING UP WINDS TO 20 KT OVER THIS REGION IN NEXT PACKAGE FRI AND SAT. HIGHEST SEAS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN SOUTH AMERICA AND HISPANIOLA...LIKELY 8-10 FT FRI AND SAT. GULF OF MEXICO... A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS ALONG THE COAST OF N MEXICO NEAR 24N98W. LOW-LEVEL CLOUD MOTIONS AND SFC DATA SUGGEST ENHANCED SE FLOW...LIKELY 15-20 KT...OVER ITS ERN SEMICIRCLE DUE TO THE TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN IT A WEAK HIGH NEAR 27N92W. THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE FARTHER INLAND OVER N MEXICO TODAY ALLOWING WINDS TO DECREASE OVER THE FAR W GULF. SFC OBS AND SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATE NW 10-15 KT FLOW OVER THE N MIDDLE AND E WATERS. THIS FLOW IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY AS BROAD TROUGHING LINGERS OVER THE W ATLC. THE TROUGH FLATTERS AND PUSHES NE THU. RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA FRI AND THIS WEEKEND ALLOWING SLY WINDS AND LOW SEAS TO DOMINATE. WARNINGS ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FORECASTER CANGIALOSI. TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER.