000 AGXX40 KNHC 110606 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 210 AM EDT THU JUN 11 2009 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE DISCUSSION AREA W OF 78W WHILE A SECOND UPPER TROUGH HAS JUST SHIFTED E OF 55W. A SHORTWAVE RIDGE SQUEEZED BETWEEN THESE TROUGHS HAS ITS MEAN AXIS ALONG 65W. A RE-ENFORCING SHORTWAVE HAS DROPPED SE INTO THE WESTERN UPPER TROUGH WITH EVIDENCE OF AN UPPER CYCLONE AT 22N78W. EXPECT THIS CYCLONE TO LIFT NE TODAY AND FRI REACHING NEAR BERMUDA SAT WITH THE TROUGH FILLING TO ITS SW BUT CUTTING OFF A SECOND UPPER CYCLONE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. GUIDANCE DOES NOT SEEM TO HAVE A HANDLE ON THIS CUTOFF CYCLONE...AND THE LATEST RUNS SUGGEST IT WILL INITIALLY TRACK SW AND THEN LATER W OVER CENTRAL AMERICA...TOTALLY OPPOSITE TRACK OF GUIDANCE 2 DAYS AGO. SOME UNCERTAINTY AT THE LOW LEVELS A WELL. A TROPICAL WAVE NOW MOVING THROUGH THE GULF OF HONDURAS HAS LEFT A LOW LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CARIBBEAN ALONG 79W. ALTHOUGH MODEL GUIDANCE NOW SEEM TO ALL FAVOR A LOW LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE W CARIBBEAN...EACH DIFFERS ON PSN AND STRENGTH OF THE TROUGH...AND ASSOCIATED DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRES ALONG THE TROUGH...AND IF A LOW DOES DEVELOP..ITS EVENTUAL TRACK. SO...FOR NOW WILL FORECAST BROAD TROUGH OVER W CARIBBEAN THROUGH PERIOD WITH GRADIENT E OF THE TROUGH SUPPORTING E TO SE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. THE TROPICS E OF 77W IS DOMINATED BY 15 TO 20 KT ELY TRADES AND EXPECT CHANGE THROUGH PERIOD EVEN AS A TROPICAL WAVE REACHES ALONG 55W LATE TODAY AND ENTERS THE E CARIBBEAN LATE FRI AND ALONG 77W LATE MON. WARNINGS ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FORECASTER NELSON. TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER.