000 AGXX40 KNHC 291945 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 330 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2009 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... A MORE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT IS FOUND ACROSS THE GULF TODAY AS YESTERDAYS S/W HAS MOVED INTO THE EXTREME W ATLC. L/W TROF ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. IS CURRENTLY IS DIGGING SWD WHILE SWEEPING SE ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES. THIS IS ALSO SUPPORTING A WEAK AND SOMEWHAT REINVIGORATED COLD FRONT ACROSS THE NRN GUFMEX...EXTENDING FROM NEAR PENSACOLA WSW AND THEN W TO THE TX COAST...PUSHING S AND APPROACHING BROWNSVILLE. AHEAD OF THIS SLOWLY SINKING BOUNDARY IS A REMNANT TROF FROM NEAR TAMPA BAY ARCHING SW INTO THE CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH OVER THE ERN GULF AND BEING ENHANCED BY DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO MOVE GRADUALLY S AND SE AND MERGE WITH THE N PORTIONS OF THE TROF OFF THE W COAST OF FLORIDA...AND WILL CONTINUE TO ACT AS AN ACTIVE FOCUSING BOUNDARY FOR DEEP CONVECTION CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS AND LARGE STEEP SEAS. THIS MERGED BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO REACH TAMPA TO NEAR TAMPICO BY SAT MORNING...WITH THE WESTERN PORTION LOSING IDENTITY BY SAT EVENING IN PART DUE TO THE TYPICAL BACKING WINDS ALONG THE N AND W COASTS OF THE YUCATAN. HOWEVER...THE ERN PORTION OF THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SNAG ACROSS S FLORIDA AND THE ADJACENT WATERS ON BOTH COASTS FOR VERY ACTIVE WEATHER. UPPER DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE L/W UPPER TROF WILL AFFECT THE E AND SE GULF AND COASTAL FLORIDA THIS EVENING THROUGH SAT EVENING AND YIELD SOME POTENTIALLY SEVERE TSTMS ACROSS THESE WATERS...MOVING GENERALLY E. A MILD N TO NE FLOW IS FORECAST BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SEAS NOT EXPECTED TO BUILD MORE THAN 4 OR 5 FT...OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION...THROUGH THE WEEKEND. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL ATLC W OF 55W... THE ATLC RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE E CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 36N38W...WSW TO THE BAHAMAS...BUT IS BROKEN BY TWO WEAK LLVL TROFS...ALONG 50W AND 68W. THIS ALIGNMENT HAS PRODUCE A BROAD ZONE OF MODERATE NE TO ENE TRADES AROUND 20 KT...AND IS ACCOMPANIED BY A CONTINUOUS STREAM OF SAL DOMINATING NEARLY THE ENTIRE TROPICAL ATLC...ALL BUT THE WRN CARIB...AND UP UNTIL THIS MORNING...MOST OF NERN S AMERICA. ESE TRADES ARE FOUND ACROSS THE CARIB AND OPEN UP INTO SSE FLOW ACROSS THE NW CARIB INTO THE SE GUFMEX. RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASSES SUGGEST BROAD 20 KT FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIB WITH 20-25 KT FLOW IN THE TYPICAL CARIB LLVL JET REGION OFF THE A-B-C ISLANDS AND COLOMBIA...WHERE PEAK SEAS OF 10-11 FT ARE FOUND. AS THE GUFMEX FRONT MOVES SE NEXT 48 HOURS...THE ATLC RIDGE WILL SHIFT AND REORGANIZE SLIGHTLY TO THE W AND SW...AND SHIFT THE ZONE OF 20 KT TRADES IN THE CARIB A FEW DEGREES TO THE W...AND MORE ELY...OVER THE WEEKEND. WWIII GUIDANCE INDICATES PEAK SEAS IN THE CARIB OCCURRING PRESENTLY AND WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TO AROUND 9 FT BY SUN. A TROPICAL WAVE CONTINUES TO BE IDENTIFIED IN THE MID TO UPPER 40'S...MOVING W 15 TO 20 KT...ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS. THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC CONTINUES TO FORCE THE ITCZ S OF ITS USUAL POSITION...AND IS KEEPING WAVES GENERALLY S OF 10-12N...WITH SIGNALS SUGGESTING THIS WAVE S OF 09N. PEAK NELY WINDS OF 20-25 KT ARE FOUND JUST OUT AHEAD OF A LLVL REFLECTION OF THIS WAVE BETWEEN 50-55W...WITH SEAS THERE 8 FT...AND ELSEWHERE A BROADER ZONE OF NEAR 20 KT FLOW ACROSS THE DEEP TROPICS...AND SEAS AT OR JUST UNDER 8 FT. ONLY MODEST CHANGES IN THIS PATTERN EXPECTED. THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE HAS RECENTLY EXITED W AFRICA...BUT MORE SAL TO REINFORCE THE VERY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS...AND STABLE WIND FLOW ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC AND CARIB NEXT FEW DAYS. SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC W OF 55W... BROAD UPPER TROUGHING EXTENDING FROM THE ERN CARIB N TO ALONG ABOUT 70W...WITH UPSTREAM DIFFLUENT FLOW N THROUGH NE OF THE BAHAMAS WILL MAINTAIN ENHANCEMENT OF LINES AND BANDS OF TSTMS MOVING OFF OF FLORIDA AND THE SE U.S. NEXT FEW DAYS...AND IN PARTICULAR WITH AND AHEAD OF THE GUFMEX COLD FRONT. MOST OF THIS AREA IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE WRN PERIPHERY OF THE ATLC RIDGE WITH FLOW VEERING FROM ESE AROUND 15 KT N OF THE GREATER ANTILLES...TO SE TO S 5-15 KT ACROSS THE BAHAMAS...AND S TO SW E OF FLORIDA. A LOW TO MID LEVEL TROF ALONG ABOUT 68W WILL SHIFT E AND NE NEXT 24 HOURS AND PRODUCE PERIODS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS. OTHERWISE...MODEST MARINE CONDITIONS PREVAIL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. WARNINGS ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FORECASTER STRIPLING. TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER.