000 AGXX40 KNHC 280718 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 315 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2009 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... VERY ACTIVE CONVECTION IS ONGOING ACROSS THE GULF THIS MORNING...RELATED TO VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND NORTHERN GULF. A WELL DEFINED SQUALL LINE IS NOTED IN THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF ALONG 88W FROM THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA TO 25N89W...MOVING EAST AT 15 TO 20 KT. EXPECT STRONG GUSTS AND HIGHER SEAS NEAR THIS CONVECTION...BUT OTHERWISE GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE FLOW PREVAILS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NORTH COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WHERE 20 KT EAST FLOW RELATED TO DIURNAL INFLUENCES PARALLELS THE COAST. A 03Z ASCAT PASS SHOWED A MESOSCALE HIGH PRES AREA BEHIND THE SQUALL LINE NEAR 27N93W. SMOKE AND HAZE PERSIST ARE LIKELY ONGOING OVER THE SE BAY OF CAMPECHE RELATED TO WILDFIRES ON THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. MEANWHILE A WEAK COLD FRONT OVER SE TEXAS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN GULF TODAY...AND EXTEND ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF THROUGH EARLY FRI...THEN PUSH SE INTO THE CENTRAL GULF THROUGH SAT...BEFORE DISSIPATING BY EARLY SUNDAY. THE GFS CONTINUES TO HAVE CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES...SHOWING SPURIOUS SMALL LOW PRES AREAS ALONG THE FRONT...WITH 30 KT WINDS. FORECAST FAVORS MORE CONSERVATIVE GFS ENSEMBLE AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL ATLC W OF 55W... FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT ARE BLOWING ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE TROPICAL N ATLC MAINLY S OF 16N WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OFF THE COAST OF VENEZUELA. BUOYS 42058 AND 42059 IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN WERE REPORTED 20 KT RESPECTIVELY. A 22Z QSCAT PASS ALONG WITH A SHIP OBSERVATION ALSO SHOWED 20 KT TRADES N OF THE GUYANA AND EAST OF TRINIDAD. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS HIGH PRES N OF AREA BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN ATLC. AS A RESULT...WILL SEE AN UNBROKEN SWATH OF FRESH TRADES FROM EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TO THE BELIZE COAST...WITH PERSISTENT 20 TO 25 KT WINDS OFF WESTERN VENEZUELA AND EASTERN COLOMBIAN COASTS. SEAS WILL RANGE FROM 7 TO 10 FT. SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC W OF 55W... SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 31N60W TO SOUTH FLORIDA. BUOY OBSERVATIONS AND A 0120Z ASCAT PASS SHOW GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE AROUND THE RIDGE AXIS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A SMALL AREA OF 15 TO 20 KT WINDS N OF 28N BETWEEN 63W AND 68W. THIS IS RELATED TO A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH SHOWING UP IN ASCAT DATA...EXTENDING E-W ALONG 30N BETWEEN 68W AND 71W. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE N FLORIDA COAST LATE FRI...LIKELY PRECEDED BY A LARGE CLUSTER OF CONVECTION NE OF THE BAHAMAS. WILL KEEP THE 15 TO 20 KT SW FLOW N OF THE BAHAMAS AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THE FORECAST. THIS IS SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE GFS ENSEMBLE ECMWF AND UKMET...BUT LESS THAN THE CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK PLAGUED GFS. THE FRONT WILL LIKELY LOSE ITS FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS AS IT SHIFTS EAST BETWEEN N FLORIDA AND BERMUDA...LEAVING MODERATE FLOW AROUND THE RIDGE AXIS. WARNINGS ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN. TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER.