000
AGXX40 KNHC 271846
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
300 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2009

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA 
AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

GULF OF MEXICO...
GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE SE TO S WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS THE 
GULF REGION AROUND A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING MAINLY OVER 
THE EAST-CENTRAL GULF. A QSCAT PASS FROM AROUND 1135 UTC AND SFC 
DATA CONFIRMED THESE WIND SPEEDS. SLY RETURN FLOW IS FORECAST TO 
INCREASE TO 20 KT OVER THE NW PORTION OF THE GULF TONIGHT AHEAD 
OF A WEAK COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO ENTER THE FAR NW GULF AROUND 
SUNRISE THU...THEN REACH FROM SE LOUISIANA TO SOUTHERN TEXAS BY 
THU EVENING. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE SAT...LEAVING A LINGERING 
TROUGH OVER THE NE GULF INTO SUN. THE GFS COMPUTER MODEL 
SUGGESTS THE DEVELOPMENT OF SMALL LOW PRES AREA ALONG OR AHEAD 
OF THE FRONT OVER THE EASTERN GULF BY LATE THU. FOR NOW...WILL 
KEEP WINDS IN THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE AHEAD OF THE FRONT/TROUGH 
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WAITING FOR NEW MODEL RUNS.  

CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL ATLC W OF 55W...
FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT ARE BLOWING ACROSS 
THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE TROPICAL N ATLC MAINLY S OF 16N WITH 
THE STRONGEST WINDS OFF THE COAST OF VENEZUELA. BUOYS 42058 AND 
42059 IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN WERE REPORTED 20 KT 
RESPECTIVELY. AN EARLIER QSCAT PASS ALSO SHOWED 20 KT TRADES N 
OF THE GUYANAS. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THE WEATHER PATTERN 
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS HIGH PRES N OF AREA BUILDS OVER 
THE WESTERN ATLC. AS A RESULT...WILL SEE AN UNBROKEN SWATH OF 
FRESH TRADES FROM EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES ACROSS THE CENTRAL 
CARIBBEAN TO THE BELIZE COAST...WITH PERSISTENT 20 TO 25 KT 
WINDS OFF WESTERN VENEZUELA AND EASTERN COLOMBIAN COASTS. SEAS 
WILL RANGE FROM 7 TO 10 FT.   

SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC W OF 55W...
SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM JUST EAST OF BERMUDA THROUGH THE 
CENTRAL BAHAMAS...IN THE WAKE OF 1010 MB SURFACE LOW LOCATED N 
OF AREA 33N75W. A QSCAT PASS FROM THIS MORNING SHOWED A FEW 
UNCONTAMINATED WIND BARBS OF 20 KT ON THE SE SIDE OF THE 
LOW...MAINLY N OF 28N BETWEEN 65W AND 75W. ELSEWHERE... 
GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS ARE NOTED AROUND THE RIDGE 
AXIS. LIGHTNING DATA INDICATES SCATTERED TSTMS ACROSS THE AREA 
PARTICULARLY OVER THE BAHAMAS AND COASTAL WATERS AND E OF 73W. 
THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS NEAR THE BASE AND AHEAD OF A 
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH EXTENDING OVER THE W ATLC. A WEAK COLD FRONT 
OR TROUGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE OFF THE SE U.S. COAST BY FRI NIGHT 
CLIPPING THE FAR NW AREA SAT. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE BETWEEN N 
FLORIDA AND BERMUDA SUN.

WARNINGS

ATLC...
.NONE.

CARIBBEAN...
.NONE.

GULF OF MEXICO...
.NONE.

FORECASTER GR. TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER.