000 AGXX40 KNHC 240704 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 300 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2009 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS THE GULF THIS MORNING. SEAS ARE GENERALLY UNDER 4 FT EVERYWHERE EXCEPT OFF THE COAST OF THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE WHERE RESIDUAL SWELL IS KEEPING SEAS TO 5 FT. WEAK RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE GULF FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA TO THE WESTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE TODAY INTO MONDAY. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL INCREASE OVER THE FAR WESTERN GULF STARTING LATE MONDAY AS A TROUGH DEVELOPES OVER TEXAS. THE RIDGE REMAINS WEAK HOWEVER...KEEPING THE GRADIENT FAIRLY LOOSE. THUS WINDS WILL LIKELY NOT INCREASE APPRECIABLY...LIKELY STAYING BELOW 20 KT EVEN IN THE WESTERN GULF THROUGH THU. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL ATLC W OF 55W... BUOY AND SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOW A SWATH OF 15 TO 20 KT TRADE WINDS OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OFF THE VENEZUELAN COAST. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS FAIRLY TIGHT IN THIS AREA DUE TO RIGDING NORTH OF THE AREA. ELSEWHERE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN...AND OVER ATLC WATERS BETWEEN 55W AND THE ISLANDS...TROUGHS TO THE NORTH OF THESE RESEPCTIVE AREAS ARE MAINTAINING ONLY 10 TO 15 KT FLOW. LITTLE CHANGE IS ANTICIPATED INTO MID WEEK. WINDS WILL START TO INCREASE EAST OF THE WINDWARDS BY WED AS THE TROUGHING TO THE NORTH BREAKS DOWN AND THE ATLC RIDGE NOSES IN. SIMILARLY WINDS WILL PICK UP SLIGHTLY OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN WED INTO THU AS THE RIDGE STARTS TO BUILD OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC W OF 55W... LATEST BUOY OBSERVATIONS ALONG WITH A 03Z ASCAT PASS SHOW A SWATH OF 15 TO 20 KT WINDS TO THE NE OF THE BAHAMAS CHAIN. SEAS ARE UP TO 8 FT AT BUOY 41010 OFF CENTRAL FLORIDA...IN FRESH SWELL. A JASON ALTIMETER PASS FROM EARLIER IN THE DAY SHOWED 8 TO 10 FT SEAS JUST NORTH OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...AN INDICATION OF SE SWELL. THESE PERSISTENT SE WINDS ARE BETWEEN HIGH PRES CENTERED N OF BERMUDA AND WEAK TROUGHING OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. THE BIG FORECAST ISSUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS REMAINS THE LIKELYHOOD OF A TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS STARTING TODAY...THEN MOVING NORTHWARD. THE INSTIGATOR FOR THIS IS FOUND ALOFT...WHERE AN UPPER TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE FROM TEXAS THROUGH THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS. THE SUBTROPICAL JET IS NOSING INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN S OF THE UPPER TROUGH. DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT ON THE LEFT FRONT OF THE JET IS AIDING THE TROUGHS DEVELOPMENT OVER THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS. WHILE THERE CONTINUES TO BE A GENERAL CONSENSUS AMONG THE VARIOUS COMPUTER MODELS THAT A TROUGH WILL FORM...THERE CONTINUES TO BE MARKED DISAGREEMENT AS TO THE INTENSITY OF THIS FEATURE. THE GFS IN JOINED BY THE NAM AND NOGAPS MODELS PORTRAYING A CLOSED CIRCULATION FORMING BY LATE MONDAY NEAR THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS...ALTHOUGH THEY DIFFER ON POSITION SOMEWHAT. THE GFS ENSEMBLE...UKMET AND ECMWF STILL SHOW ONLY A BROAD TROUGH ORIENTED GENERALLY E-W MOVING TO THE NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS. THE GFS STILL MAY BE A LITTLE TOO AGRESSIVE WITH THIS FEATURE...WITH WINDS TO 30 KT BY LATE TODAY. CORRESPONDINGLY...THE WAVEWATCH IS LIKELY A TAD HIGH ON SEA HEIGHTS. FORECAST THROUGH TUE CONTINUES TO LEAN MORE WITH GFS ENSEMBLE...UKMET...AND ECMWF SOLUTION...ALTHOUGH WITH WINDS REACHING 20 KT BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND HIGH PRES NE OF THE AREA. FOR WED AND THU...GFS IS ALONE SPINNING UP ANOTHER LOW E OF THE BAHAMAS AND MOVES IT THROUGH BERMUDA. THIS IS LIKELY JUST THE EASTWARD EXTENSION OF THE TROUGH. FORECAST WILL HOLD OFF ON BRINGING IN THIS LOW...BUT WILL INTRODUCE 15 TO 20 KT SE FLOW NEAR BERMUDA IN FORECAST FOR WED TO THU TIME FRAME. WARNINGS ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FORECASTER CHRISTESNEN. TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER.