000 AGXX40 KNHC 231945 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 345 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2009 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... LOW PRESSURE HAS NOW MOVED INLAND OVER SRN MISSISSIPPI. EARLIER SCATTEROMETER...SHIP...AND BUOY DATA SHOWED A SWATH OF MAX WINDS IN THE 25-30 KT RANGE WITH ONE REPORT...DAUPHIN ISLAND ALABAMA...PEAKING AT 34 KT AT 13 Z. HOWEVER...SINCE THEN CONDITIONS OVER GULF WATERS HAVE BEEN IMPROVING AND WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE AS THE LOW TRACKS FARTHER INLAND. WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW 20 KT AND 8 FT WITHIN THE NEXT 18 HOURS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS SIGNIFICANTLY LATE SUN ALLOWING MAINLY SLY WINDS TO BE 10-15 KT OR LESS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH MID-WEEK. ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE OVER THE FAR W GULF WHERE SLY RETURN FLOW OF 15-20 KT WILL SET UP MON THROUGH WED IN RESPONSE TO LOW PRES FORMING OVER THE S CENTRAL PLAINS. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL ATLC W OF 55W... A HI-RES QSCAT PASS THIS MORNING SHOWED 20-25 KT E TO SE WINDS ACROSS THE SE CARIBBEAN...SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN EXPECTED. SEAS HAVE BUILT TO 8 FT AT BUOY 42059...SO SEAS ARE LIKELY SLIGHTLY HIGHER CLOSER TO THE VENEZUELA COAST. WINDS REMAIN LIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE W CARIBBEAN DUE TO BROAD TROUGHING EXTENDING S FROM THE LOW OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. WINDS ALSO REMAIN LIGHT OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC DUE TO A BROAD TROUGH IN THAT AREA. BASICALLY FORECASTING LITTLE CHANGE THROUGH MID-WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING WILL REMAIN N OF THE E CARIBBEAN AND A BROAD TROUGH MEANDERS OVER THE SUBTROPICAL W ATLC. SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC W OF 65W... E TO SE WINDS REMAIN AROUND 20 KT ACROSS THE NW BAHAMAS AND OFF MUCH OF THE FLORIDA COAST...DUE TO THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRES N OF BERMUDA AND THE LOW OVER THE SE CONUS. BUOY 41010 IS REPORTING 8 FT SEAS WITH A DOMINANT PERIOD OF 7 SEC. WINDS AND SEAS ARE LIKELY LOCALLY HIGHER IN THE SHOWERS AND TSTMS OFF THE FL COAST AND OVER MUCH OF THE BAHAMA CHAIN. FORECAST STILL REMAINS A BIT TRICKY. GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW A BROAD TROUGH SET UP ACROSS THE AREA WITH A SERIES OF WEAK LOWS SPINNING UP ALONG IT. ACTUALLY...A WEAK 1017 MB LOW MAY BE FORMING ON THE TROUGH NEAR 22.5N56W AND ANOTHER SIMILAR LOW MAY SOON DEVELOP ALONG THE SAME TROUGH BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY OF THE SE BAHAMAS AND HISPANIOLA. WHILE...UKMET SHOWS LITTLE TROUGHING ACROSS THE ZONE THROUGH MID-WEEK. THE GFS MODEL HAS BEEN CONTINUING TO SPIN-UP THESE LOWS OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...SO IT APPEARS TO ACTUALLY BE ON TO SOMETHING AS PRESENTLY EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AND IN BUOY AND SHIP OBSERVATIONS. BOTH ECMWF AND GFS MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT A WEAK ELONGATED TROUGH FORMING OVER THE BAHAMAS SUN AND DRIFTING N EARLY NEXT WEEK. WARNINGS ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FORECASTER CANGIALOSI. TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER.