000 AGXX40 KNHC 220705 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 300 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2009 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CONTINUES TO BE THE MAIN FEATURE IN THE GULF THIS MORNING. THE 1004 MB SURFACE LOW PRES IS CENTERED NEAR 26N87W AND IS MOVING TO THE WNW AT 6 TO 7 KT. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING ON THE EASTERN HALF OF THE LOW PRES...ALONG A TROUGH LINE EXTENDING FROM THE LOW THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA. BUOYS AND SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOW GENERALLY 20 KT FLOW FROM THE EAST ON THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW PRES...ENCOMPASSING MOST OF THE NE GULF OF MEXICO. BUOY 42039 SW OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA IS REPORTING SEAS TO 7 FT...AND SEAS TO 8 FT IN ARE LIKELY S OF MOBILE. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE LOW TRACKS WNW...REACHING THE LOUISIANA COAST BY LATE SAT. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL INCREASE OFF THE TEXAS COAST STARTING MONDAY. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS W OF 55W... VERY STRONG CONVECTION CONTINUES TO FLARE SOUTH OF HAITI...MOVING SE INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THIS ACTIVITY IS ON THE SE PORTION OF A MID/UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE EAST CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO TO CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. STRONG GUSTS ARE LIKELY IN THE VICINITY OF THE CONVECTION. MEANWHILE A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER CENTRAL COLOMBIA ALONG 75W. A 23Z QUIKSCAT PASS HINTED THAT THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THIS WAVE MAY HAVE BEEN TEMPORARILY AMPLIFIED AS THE WAVE INTERACTED WITH THE MID/UPPER TROUGH. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH RELATED TO THE UPPER TROUGH MAY BE FORMING OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THIS FEATURE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS BEFORE SHOWING IT WEAKENING. WEAK LOW PRES WILL REMAIN OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN INTO THE WEEKEND HOWEVER. THE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN IS ALLOWING WINDS TO REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. STRONGER TRADE WIND FLOW IS NOTED ON ASCAT AND BUOY DATA OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL ATLC WATERS HOWEVER WHERE THE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT DUE TO HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ATLANTIC N OF 20N W OF 55W... A 02Z ASCAT PASS SHOWS 20 TO 25 KT FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE NW BAHAMAS AND ADJACENT WATERS N OF THE AREA...BETWEEN 1028 MB HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA AND 1006 MB LOW PRES OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. REPORTS FROM BUOYS 41009 AND 41010 OFF THE EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST SHOW 9 AND 10 FT SEAS RESPECTIVELY...WITH 8 TO 9 SECOND E SWELL. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND SEAS SUBSIDE SAT INTO SUN AS THE HIGH PRES SHIFTS EAST...AND THE LOW PRES FILLS MAKES LANDFALL IN LOUISIANA. FURTHER EAST...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 28N55W TO 23N59W. GLOBAL MODELS AGREE THAT THIS FEATURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH THE GFS SHOWS A SERIES OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREAS SPINNING UP ALONG THE TROUGH. SOME OF THIS MAY BE CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK...AND FORECAST FAVORS A BLEND OF GFS AND LESS AGGRESSIVE ECMWF. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH MAY FORM FROM THE N CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TO THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS BY SATURDAY. AGAIN...SOME DISAGREEMENT IN GLOBAL MODELS REGARDING DEVELOPMENT OF THIS FEATURE...AND FORECAST IS NOT QUITE AS AGGRESSIVE AS THE GFS BY SHOWING ONLY WEAK TROUGH PERSISTING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK OVER SOUTHERN BAHAMAS. WARNINGS ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN. TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER.